https://www.clarin.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-takes-dimension_0_sHsqOYCy9G.html

The theory of realism in international relations assumes this disorder is worse than injustice. When basic agreements are broken in a world of permanent tensions, the established order is disrupted. One of the victims of this debacle is peace, which is never the priority objective of states but the international order that makes it possible.

These ideas, which are those of Kissinger, Morgenthau and before Machiavelli among other thinkers, help to understand the challenge that the war in Ukraine poses and the deep meaning that is in dispute on that front.

Just as Vladimir Putin has kicked the international order even with the limitations of his armies’ underpreparedness and also poorly informed about their capabilities, the conflict has become a a test for the West on the conservation of those balances in their own key.

Therefore, there are no fallback alternatives. for neither side. That’s why war is only going to get worse. That’s what’s coming.

Regardless of the date of the first year of the invasion, which is February 24, the Kremlin is preparing a major military operation with which he will try to recover the initiative and set the conditions. He will be a iron fist seeking to restore dignity and success to the Muscovite army, which has suffered notable failures since its initial attempt to take Kiev.

All this will happen before the new Western weapons arrive in Ukraine, of a modernity unthinkable in that scenario until a few months ago, such as the gigantic German, British and American tanks, unmatched in Russian strength.

World War I logic

From one view, delaying these shipments would tip the sandbox in favor of Moscow, but the Kremlin continues to struggle with some logic of the First World War, with artillery, mines and trenches. These characteristics make it difficult to imagine a definition in the imminent escalation for which Ukraine has also been ready for some time.

Looking at what has happened so far, it is not clear that Moscow, which in six months and with mercenary work he conquered only a small town And at a huge cost in casualties, having sufficient resources for an assault that completely upends the conflict’s compass, analysts in Europe say.

The West is betting on these weaknesses at the head of the United States, which, according to what has been said, cannot admit any other alternative than a resounding victory on Russia to build a precedent.

Putin, in his military defiance, has sought to embody the leaderships that confronted the United States and Europe in World War II, a conflagration that the Germans and Japanese raised to spaces of power and the market.

Those ambitions are the same as in the conflict against Ukraine, but the huge difference is that today’s Russia is unmatched by those players who, moreover, ended up defeated.

“The results so far have been appalling because Russia was not ready,” admits Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin, quoted in a detailed analysis by the agency. Bloomberg. “This has turned into a protracted war and Moscow still doesn’t have enough men or equipment to fight it,” she added in her critique.

Former President Dmitri Medvedev himself, deputy head of the Security Council in the Kremlin, has not ruled out the possibility of a Russian defeat, but has transformed that alternative into one nuclear threat.

“The atomic powers do not lose the great conflicts on which their fate depends,” he recently warned, suggesting that the bomb will be the last and inevitable answer in that abyss

The scenario is complicated enough that realistic views emerge in Russia that claim that it already is an achievement and too much effort to keep the front line.

That’s the view of General Sergei Surovikin, who led the war effort with a highly defensive approach after Ukraine surprised the world and the Russians themselves with its September offensive. But Surovikin he was relieved of command just three months after attaining that post.

protracted war​

The extent of the conflict has always been bad news for the Russian leader, who nevertheless believes that the strength of his forces, with unprecedented lows in any military episode since WWII, it has a chance if the country adjusts to a permanent warlike climate.

That’s why in recent months, as was the case in Soviet times, Russian schools have been born from elementary to university training for possible attacks. The intention is not so much to prevent as to do install that common sense of an endless war on the population.

kyiv assumes that the conflict enters an existential level for the russian command. “Major battles are yet to come”warns Oleksy Danilov, head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council.

In the comments to skynews the official remarked that Moscow “is putting everything possible together, doing exercises and training. We don’t rule out any scenario in the next two to three weeks.” Files include Belarus, a crucial but sometimes critical ally of Moscow.

The attacks will not only be land-based, but also from the sea and from the air, warns Natalia Humeniuk, spokeswoman for the defense forces in the south of the country. Thus, the Western allies are landing huge quantities of anti-aircraft weapons in Ukraine that also admit offensive qualities.

The escalation has more than just military motivations. General Valery Gerasimov, commander of the Armed Forces, has just been appointed to lead war strategy in Ukraine in place of Surovikin. And he third senior military officer to assume this position since the beginning of the conflict. Clear fact, those relays, of the eventful course of the war.

As is known, this prestigious general moved in alliance with the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, to convince Putin of the opportunity to take command of the conflict and abolish purely defensive criteria imposed by the displaced soldier.

This finding is interesting from another perspective if one observes that Surovikin was a central ally of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group which boasts that it moves more skillfully than the Russian army itself. An offense to Gerasimov and one more reason to push these changes.

However, to be crowned in that position and maintain his political influence amidst such an inmate, the fate of the offensive in the coming weeks will be crucial. The new military leader is obliged to offer achievements that unlock the deadlock and restore confidence in the Russian leader.

“With Putin continuing to insist that Russia take the whole of Donbass and even Kiev, it is clear that General Gerasimov will be under enormous pressure to carry out a successful offensive this spring. Now it’s his turn, and I suspect it Putin once again has unrealistic expectations.”said Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security issues, quoted by The New York Times.

An anecdote illustrates the limitations that the scenario presents. Gerasimov, perhaps the most important soldier in Russia, has been in charge of the “modernization of the armed forces” for the past 10 years, progress which has remained in serious interrogation in the failed Ukrainian military camp.

Just note that last April this influential official narrowly escaped death when visiting troops at the front. An unacceptable incident in which dozens of soldiers and officers were killed and which dramatically exposed the army’s planning flaws.

“When you go into a real war, like the one in Ukraine, all shortcomings are immediately exposed. Frederick Hodges, former commander of the US army in Europe, tells the American newspaper about it.

In the coming days we will see to what extent this can be true and what it will end up meaning in political terms. Power is getting the results you want. The reverse is simply the end.

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