Last day of the electoral campaign in France, with maximum health alert. Public health has announced “strong heat, drink water, stay cool and go out only during the cooler hours and away from the sun”.

A difficult mission for Ensemble, the party of Emmanuel Macron, at stake for an absolute majority in the National Assembly on Sunday’s ballot, and for Nupes, the left-wing alliance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which intends to obtain enough seats to force Macron to appoint him prime minister.

As criticism of the president escalates for his electoral trip to Ukraine, 38 degrees are expected on Saturday and 40 degrees on Sunday. Never seen in June. A record in Paris. The “heat plume”, as meteorologists call it, which caused the first “heat plume” ever recorded in France.

The temperature will be a determining factor. in the ballot of these parliamentary elections. Schools in France were also closed this Friday due to heat and pollution. School buildings are not prepared to resist it.

With 14 departments on red alert and 56 on orange alert, closing the election campaign is complicated.

The two candidates who lead the campaign are not the ones who define. The 25 million French who did not go to vote in the first round and obtained a record number of abstentions, they will decide these crucial elections next Sunday in France.

what the polls say

According to a survey by Odoxa Blackbone Consulting for the newspaper The Figaro70 percent of the French They don’t want an absolute majority. in the National Assembly “.

They want “a relative majority” for Ensemble, the ruling party, which forces them to continually negotiate with other deputies. A probable reflection of Macron’s “Giopiterian” airs and his decision to cancel Parliament.

Only 35 percent would like to see Jean Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing Nupes alliance, “as prime minister”.

Abstention will once again be very high in the ballot: it is expected to be 53 per cent, according to Gaël Sliman, president of Odoxa.

Another poll result is that the French do not expect “Republican” voting slogans for this second round.

The possibility that the xenophobic and populist Marine Le Pen party of the National Rally or that of Nupes will grow no longer worries the voters. A very French custom that has changed.

In 108 constituencies where Ensemble faces Le Pen’s party, fewer than one in four Frenchmen (24%) would vote for Nupes to stop Le Pen.

The “republican vote”, used in France to stop the then Front National and Le Pen, has vanished. Le Pen is “demonized”. He can go from 7 to 40 seats.

Difficult prognosis

Therefore, predicting the results on Sunday is a real adventure. Nobody knows. Polls show an increase in left-wing parties, which make up Nupes.

In a National Assembly with 577 seats, Nupes could get between 179 and 225 seats. Ensemble, the presidential majority, would get between 252 and 292. But the absolute majority is 289 seats, in the most favorable picture.

With this scenario, the Republican conservatives, almost disappeared in the first round, become indispensable for Ensemble to negotiate their laws. Even if they have to hold 42 to 62 seats, it will be a group that Macron needs. This will force Macron to turn his policies to the right.

The National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s party, could even reach 25-49 deputies. It currently has no more than 7 seats.

According to polls, Macron’s party would lack between ten seats and an absolute majority. The electorate wants to strengthen the left and right in Parliament, they are looking for a debate.

Only 32 per cent of the electorate is “very interested” in the vote and it is estimated that there will be a turnout of 42 per cent in this second legislative round.

Young people were the main abstentionists, especially those under the age of 35. If they stand up to vote, they will favor Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Countryside and heat wave

Despite the 33 degrees in the shade, Clement Beaune campaigns in the Marais. The former minister of Europe plays all or nothing and could lose his place in these elections. In the 7th district of Paris, Nupes won with 41%.

He accuses Nupes that “a basic salary of 1,500 euros, a pension of 60, or the price freeze” they propose “is an unfunded gift for everyone”, which will increase taxes or aggravate public debt.

In Calvados the temperature is lower. There is Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne campaigning in her jurisdiction, where she won 34.32% in the first round. Macron’s cabinet ministers are campaigning across the country.

dashes against the president

The French opposition protests against the opportunistic travel and in the midst of Emmanuel Macron’s legislative elections in Ukraine on Thursday.

Jean François Cope of the Republicans called it “irreverence”. Macron returned this Friday from Kiev, where he was to travel by train. From there, in an interview with BFMTV, he announced support for Ukraine’s candidacy to the European Union as “a sign of hope” and a “message to Russia”, with which he will continue to maintain exchanges. From Rzeszów in Poland, Macron returned to Paris on the presidential plane.

Paris, correspondent

CB