Mexicans decided this Sunday in polls whether Andrés Manuel López Obrador will step down from the presidency early or end his term in 2024, in the first referendum to revisit the country’s history, which is expected to advance to the center-left president.

“The day was successful,” the president of the National Electoral Institute (INE), Lorenzo Córdova, assured in his first assessment.

Córdova insisted on advancing participation percentages, one of the key issues for the result to be valid 37 million votes required (40% of voters).

“Let no one forget that the people are in charge, the people are putting in and the people are taking away,” López Obrador told the press after leaving the polling station.

AMLO, as he was known by the initials of his name, invalidated the ballot by writing “Viva Zapata!” be impartial this consultation, which he himself promoted after it was included in the Constitution in 2019 as an antidote to “bad government.”

“It will help us so that no one at any level on the scale feels full,” added the president, who has been elected for six years.

Consultancy on electoral issues Integralia estimated an average turnout of 14.8%.

Only that fact will confirm the country’s first leftist president, 68 years old and with 58% approval, in office, according to a consolidated survey by the firm Oraculus. In Mexico there is no compulsory voting.

Testimonials

“I’m happy with him, I hope he continues and he repeats himself,” Carmen Sobrino, 64, told AFP at her polling station, although in the country there is no re -election or extension of mandate.

The head of state has said he will retire from politics when his term ends.

In cities like Guadalajara (west) the influx of voters is low. “This is leading us to ruin,” Guadalupe Pastor, a 60-year-old retired mechanic, who voted for the AMLO option to leave power “because of a loss of confidence,” told AFP.

Opponents called for abstentionclaiming that the plebiscite was merely the work of “propaganda”.

“He will continue as president, I don’t understand why the money would be spent,” commented Rubén López, a 58-year-old salesman, in the capital.

In a report, Integralia predicted “a strong majority in favor of López Obrador remaining in office.”

political tension

AMLO accuses INE of sabotage in the referendum in collusion with the “conservatives” (as it calls the opposition), where it announced a reform so that its members and members of the electoral court were elected by popular vote and not by the Chamber of Deputies.

“It is completely untrue that the INE has not complied with its duty to promote” the consultation, Córdova said on Sunday, criticizing the ruling party’s “potential use of public resources” to advance the referendum.

Due to lack of funding, INE installed 57,500 voting stations against 161,000 of a federal election.

With no greater risk of having to leave power, the president could take advantage of the plebiscite to roll out some projects and “start the machinery” of the Morena party toward the 2024 presidential election, political analyst Martha Anaya estimates.

“This will be a parameter to evaluate the mobilization capacity” of the ruling party, Integralia pointed out.

With nearly three years left in his mandate, AMLO’s “transformation” project has some challengessuch as the electricity sector reform application endorsed by the Supreme Court of Justice this week, in the face of rejection by the United States, Canada and Spain, and by the opposition parties PRI, PAN and PRD.

The new framework, that’s the president hoping to be strengthened through a constitutional reform, giving greater weight to the State in energy generation.

Some of the stakes are mounting, as the coalition government – the main force in Congress – is not, however, getting enough votes to change the Constitution and is forced to negotiate.

Social programs

López Obrador based his acceptance on social programs for which he allocated 23,000 million dollars this year (6.4% of the budget) and policies such as improving the minimum wage (265 dollars per month).

“You’re living better despite the pandemic. There have been developments, especially in the field of society, and corruption has been drastically reduced,” said Herlinda Escamilla, a 75-year-old antiques seller. which benefits from a subsidy for the elderly. .

According to Coneval, a public body that reviews social policies, 44% of Mexicans live in poverty, one of the evils the AMLO has promised to fight along with corruption.

Among the leader’s challenges are ongoing criminal violence, which has left about 340,000 dead since 2006, and an economy hit by covid-19, which this year will increase by just 3.4%.

Annual inflation is at its highest level in two decades (7.3% in February).

By Sofia Miselem and Alexander Martínez, AFP agency

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