Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan brings undeniable risks.

Beijing could answer harass ships and planes of the United States Navy in the area, with a clear potential for collision or confrontation.

He could conquer the Taiwanese island of Kinmen (largely demilitarized), better known to Cold War buffs as Quemoy, located just a few kilometers off the Fujian coast.

He could lend a hand to Moscow in the war in Ukraineperhaps by selling him the kind of precision ammunition rumored to be in short supply in the Russian military.

A month ago, all of this could have been a credible, if not quite convincing argument for the Speaker of the House to skip Taiwan on his Asian tour, at least while the US grapples with other crises. But once his visit is announced, It would have been catastrophic to back down.

Bullies often look for evidence of strength to detect signs of weakness. And they always interpret conciliation efforts as evidence of capitulation.

This is what is happening now. “Winning a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the ultimate skill,” wrote Sun Tzu. “Subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate skill.”

If Beijing could get away with it apparently as minor as the visit from Pelosi, it would not have been just a symbolic victory in a diplomatic spectacle. It would change the rules of the game.

Instead of avoiding a diplomatic crisis, it would have accelerated a strategic disaster: The further isolation of a US democratic ally and key economic partner as a prelude to surrender, or war Both of them.

What happens now? Let’s recap Where were we before?

Congressmen have been visiting Taiwan for decades. In May, Senator Tammy Duckworth, a Democrat from Illinois, led a congressional delegation and met with President Tsai Ing-wen. The senator Lindsay Graham, A Republican from South Carolina, he led a bipartisan delegation in April. None of these visits resulted in crises of any kind.

In 1997, the then President of the Chamber of Deputies, Newt Gingrichhe visited Taipei, first stopping in Beijing, where he warned his guests that the United States would militarily defend Taiwan if he was attacked.

“We never fought,” Gingrich said then. “They never said: “Well, they can’t have that right, this is interference”. They said: “Okay, let’s take note”. And then they basically said: “Since we’re not going to attack, you won’t have to defend yourself”. Let’s keep talking about how we will resolve this issue ‘. And I think it’s very healthy. “

All these visits took place as part of thediplomatic agreements governing relations between the United States and China and Taiwan from the 70s: the politics of A law on relations between China and Taiwan.

another scenario

But how China feels it its power increases -and who perceives that the power and determination of the United States diminish– wrote a new strategy manual: do scandalous legal claimstransform alleged provocations into useful pretexts, take gradual but increasingly aggressive steps and use force only as a psychologically overwhelming last blow.

That is how imposed dictatorial control over Hong Kong. That’s how it gradually increasing their military dominance in the South China Sea. This is how it is trying to undermine Japan’s sovereignty over some of its outlying islands.

And this is the approach it seems to be using now with Taiwan. Given the loss of prestige that Beijing believes it suffered from Pelosi’s visit, it is to be hoped that increase the intimidating factor without risking an open war. Kinmen Island is surrounded by islets that China could easily see as a show of strength.

What should the United States do then? Don’t back down.

1. Congressional delegations are expected to arrive in Taiwan every week for next year. Make them so routine that Beijing forgets to protest.

2. President Joe Biden should formally state what he has repeatedly said off the cuff: that the United States will intervene militarily if China attempts to invade Taiwan.

You can underline the point with frequent naval transits of the United States Navy through the Taiwan Strait, along with an expansion of covert joint training exercises that US and Taiwanese Special Operations Forces have already conducted.

3. The United States can also provide Taiwan with the type of asymmetrical weapons of easy dispersion and concealment that have done so much damage to the Russians: Javelin anti-tank missiles, Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, naval attack anti-ship missiles.

4. Biden is expected to propose large increases in military spending, particularly for the Navy, which is now behind China in number of ships. I would have bipartisan support for this as an industrial policy and as a global security measure.

It is hoped that China will accept the costs of the confrontation far outweigh the benefits. It is a lesson that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have learned, albeit only after invading Ukraine and with him a tragic price for the world.

The key to saving Taiwan is to make Beijing understand this point now, before it falls. in such a tragedy. Kudos to Pelosi for keeping his position.

New York Times

Translation: Elisa Carnelli

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