“They’re a bunch of gangsters,” says a man fishing on the dock as Chinese missiles fly nearby.

So far, escalating tensions between China and Taiwan as a result of the brief but controversial visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei are proceeding exactly as planned.

First, China declared six forbidden zones around Taiwan.

Then, two hours after these zones came into force, Beijing crossed the strait and fired at least two Dong Feng ballistic missiles at areas north of the Taiwan coast.

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This is very similar to the last time China tried in 1996, when Beijing tried to punish Taiwan for demanding international recognition.

The purpose of the tests is clearly to scare Taiwan.

But the move is also causing major disruptions to Taiwan’s transportation and airline industries. The waters around Taiwan are among the world’s busiest shipping routes. And all these ships now have to change course.

At the Bi Sha Yu fishing port on Taiwan’s north coast, fishermen were straightening their nets and muttering loudly, “When politicians fight, we little ones always suffer.”

“But what can we do, it’s too dangerous to go there now,” said one boat captain.

Another had his boat moored after returning to port. “I left this morning but the coast guard radioed us to return to port immediately,” he said.

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But he said he wasn’t worried.

“We don’t know where the exclusion zones are, so we have to do what the coast guard tells us.”

His wife, who was standing on the pier, got even more angry: “Every day this happens, we lose money. We can’t catch fish, but we still have to pay the crew!”

Most people the BBC spoke to do not believe that China is about to attack Taiwan. “They’re a bunch of gangsters,” said a man fishing at the pier.

“These communists are talking loudly but doing nothing. We have been facing these threats for 70 years.”

But this is only the first day of rising tensions and there is still much that can happen. Chinese ships may invade Taiwan’s territorial waters.

The most intense speculation revolves around the possibility that China is preparing to fire a missile that passes over the top of the island. This is because one of the China’s declared exclusion zones is on the east coast of Taiwan in the Pacific Ocean.

A missile fired from China and landing there would have to pass through Taiwan. Launching such a missile would be a major breach of Taiwanese airspace.

The only country to do something similar is North Korea, which fired a long-range missile that flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido in August 2017.

The question everyone is asking now is: Will Beijing follow in Pyongyang’s footsteps?

– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-62422316.

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