Russia’s attack on Ukraine could cause NATO to approach Moscow. Despite threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Finland launched this Wednesday the process of joining NATO within a few months. Sweden will follow in their footsteps.

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said from Stockholm that his country decide “in a few weeks” if you apply to join NATO. His government sent Marin a White Paper on Security to Parliament on Wednesday. Finland and Russia share a land border of 1,340 kilometers.

That document will be the basis of a debate that seems to have been won by those in favor of joining the Atlantic Alliance. The Finnish press reports that 117 representatives were in favor, that another 71 were likely to vote in favor and that Only 12, in a chamber of 200, will vote against it.

On the street the support seemed enormous. The latest polls ensure that up to 68% of Finns approve of the first leg, with only 12% rejecting it. Others are hesitant or unresponsive.

fins

The Grand Duchy of Finland, connected with the Russian Empire, declared independence in 1917in the midst of the Russian Revolution. At the dawn of World War II, the Red Army attacked the Finns, who resisted but finally had to give up part of the Karelia province to Moscow.

In 1994 they signed a peace agreement in which Finland did not fall into the Soviet or Western bloc and remained neutral.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 pushed Finland to apply to join the European Union in the same year. Entered in 1995 along with Austria and Sweden, were also neutral during the Cold War.

The White Paper confirms that the government has shown that only through NATO ownership is it under the north-west security umbrella, thanks to article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which promises an attack on one of the its member state. it will attack everyone and everyone will take up arms.

The Finnish Parliament will discuss the options in a few weeks. Once this is over, the government will decide whether to send the petition to NATO headquarters in Brussels. This request must first be approved by Parliament by an absolute majority and ratified by the President of the Republic.

Swedish

This last step is just a protocol. The idea of ​​the Finns is for NATO to put their request on the table at its next annual summit, held in Madrid on June 29 and 30.

A hypothetical entry of Finland into NATO would change little in the current situation other than that mutual defense clause. The Finnish Armed Forces are fully compatible with NATO countries and participate in their training exercises.

Furthermore, NATO will not add a weak military nation like many of its members. Finland, as a proportion of its population and GDP, it is military power. With 5.5 million inhabitants, the country can mobilize between 250,000 and 300,000 soldiers and maintains a reserve of 900,000 thanks to the fact that it maintains mandatory 12-month military service.

The country has a fleet of dozens of modern American F-18 and F-35 fighter jets.

Sweden will go the way of Finland. Its prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, who hosted the Finnish Sanna Marin in Stockholm on Wednesday, said that joining the Atlantic Alliance or not was risky: “There is no choice without risk.”

On Monday Andersson’s party, the Social Democrats, announced that it was launching an internal debate on the idea of ​​joining NATO or not. His party has traditionally been in favor of maintaining neutrality as Conservatives preferred to enter the military organization a few years ago.

NATO will welcome them. All of its neighbors (Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Poland) are already members of the group. The entry of a new Member State must be accepted unanimously by the current 30 NATO countries, something that seems certain.