Private sector measurements for the last week of September show thisInflation hit the 7% cap last month. Advisors therefore revised their projections a few weeks ago upwards, driven by accelerating food prices.
INDEC has registered Inflation of 7.4% in July and 7% in August. For September it was initially expected to be below 6.5%, but with the end of the month everything got worse.
Consultancy firms EcoGo, C&T, Libertad y Progreso and LCG see September inflation in the middle 6.7% and 6.9%. And they anticipate that there will be no improvements in the October registry.
The EcoGo advisory measurement records an increase in foods in September of approximately 7.3% per month. This leads them to project general inflation of 6.7%.
From C&T they lead the index to 6.8%, a tenth above the August record, which was 6.7%. Over the past twelve months, prices have increased by 82.8%the highest variation since December 1991.
C&T reports a 13% increase in apparel due to the change of season. “In various goods and services, the 12% increase in cigarettes, although there have also been significant increases in toiletries, “they point out.
Furthermore, Housing was affected by the increase in gas and electricity deriving from the elimination of contributions for the various users.
Food and beverages, the most relevant item, increased by 7% for C&T. The largest increases occurred in oils, vegetables and soft drinks. “Meat accelerated significantly in the second half of the month,” they note.
In equipment and maintenance for the home, the increases in cleaning products and a new adjustment of the salaries of domestic workers stand out.
In transport, affected by the fuel hike at the end of August and it was combined with the increase in taxis.
The measure of Freedom and Progress gives 6.9% of inflation for September, that would be the third largest increase in the entire Alberto Fernández administration. The items that grew the most in the month were: “Education” (20.3%, “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco” (13.7%) and “Transport and fuels” (8.7%).
For their part, the ones that had the greatest impact on the increase in the index were “Food and non-alcoholic drinks” (1.6 percentage points); “Transport and communications” (1.0 pp) and “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” (0.8 pp).
So, in the first 9 months of 2022, accumulated inflation reaches 67.2%.
“The rate of inflation on an annual basis was 84.3%, remaining only 15.7% points from the three figures. In this way, the inflation accumulated during the first 33 months of Alberto Fernández’s presidency is 243, 6% “, underline by Libertà e Progresso.
Eugenio Marí, chief economist of Libertad y Progreso states that “Argentina has decisively entered a new inflationary regime, with the price level at 7% per month for the third consecutive month. And there are no signs of slowing down. In September, the Central Bank increased its interest-bearing debt by $ 1.3 trillion, which means that the total amount of interest-bearing debt accrues $ 480,256 million per month. If we add to this a state with a fiscal deficit, few reasons to think about a slowdown in emissions and prices“.
In addition, Marí added that “food has increased at the same rate as the general index, which will put even more pressure on the second-half poverty data, which will increase compared to that published by INDEC this week.”
Once again, in September, the food grew above the general level. According to the LCG survey, monthly food inflation averaged 8% and 7.8% measured “end to end”. Vegetables increased by 12.3%; while dairy products and eggs increased by 10.5% and meat by 8%.
Other increases for October
In October, 6% appears as a minimum threshold, with the possibility of approaching 7% again. Among the main increases of the month is the recent 6% increase in fuel, which will add to the increases expected for the various services. There will be a 10% increase in the water tariff, a 19% increase in Internet and mobile phone tariffs and an 11.5% jump in the prepaid tariff.
There will also be a 20% increase in private tuition in the city of Buenos Aires and 6.2% in the province of Buenos Aires.
In addition, there will be a reorganization of expenses due to one of the seven installments of the extraordinary bonus of $ 134,000 for those in charge.
AQ
Source: Clarin
