After a September of extraordinary abundance, the foreign exchange market returned to its usual dynamics this week. The Central Bank once again sold $ 58 million of its reserves, with which it accumulates a net turnover of US $ 92 million on two wheels, where import demand remained high.
In an international context where soybean prices have fallen to their lowest level since July, hitting US $ 500 per ton in Chicago, and without the “stimulus” of $ 200 dollars for soybean farmers, agricultural clearings have decreased significantly.
On Friday, the last day of the soybean dollar, agricultural settlements totaled $ 450 million, a figure that dropped to just over $ 193 million on Monday and $ 20 million in the final round of the short week. At the same time, import demand, without the effect of energy after the winter months, remains high.
until the announcements are delayed on other ways of dollars to reserves, the government more controls on imports.
The Central Bank accumulates net purchases of US $ 5,000 million over the year, but this new trickle of reserves worries the market because it is estimated that much of the 8 trillion US dollars entered last month through the Export Increase Program was born from advances on exports.
Martín Polo, Cohen’s chief strategist, said: “With all the soy liquidated, the foreign exchange market is left without the main source of supply; we estimate that the liquidation of the sector would be about 1,500 million dollars per month (for the rest of the corn and wheat) “.
“The implementation of the” soybean dollar “allowed the liquidation of the soybean complex for $ 8.1 billion, with net bookings picking up and leading us to believe that the third quarter target may have been achieved. However, the fourth quarter will be challenging as an additional $ 1.7 billion will need to be added and dollar flows will be lower, “said Juan Manuel Franco, from Grupo SBS.
Meanwhile, in the parallel market in the last round before an extra large weekend, all “free” prices have dropped. After two reels with no changes, the blue dollar dropped $ 5 and hit the floor by $ 280, hitting $ 275, a low not seen in three weeks.
At the same time, financial prices, which had risen sharply in the previous one, fell again. The liquidity with the liquidation drops to 306.89 dollars while the MEP dollar, or stock exchange, touches 290 dollars.
Source: Clarin