Two months after Sergio Massa was hired as head of the Ministry of Economy, private consultants and analysts are back verify inflation estimates with the novelty of predicting a three-digit increase in prices for this year.
Now, after assuming that in September the rise in prices would have been 6.7%, it is estimated that 2022 will close with inflation of 100.3% compared to 95% the previous month. Those who best predict the rise in retail prices expect, on average, even higher inflation of 101.5%.
The forecasts for 2023 are also on the rise and the rise in prices could reach 90.5% against 84.1% of the forecast of the previous month. East contrasts with the estimate of the Budget 2023 project which was prepared with an assumption of inflation of 60%. Higher levels of inflation contribute decisively to reducing public spending in real terms, such as wages, pensions, social spending and meeting fiscal targets with the IMF.
The data correspond to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank based on the forecasts of 39 participants, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 13 financial institutions in Argentina.
Inflation of 100.3% this year would be reached because “the inflation forecasts for the next few months have also been corrected by 0.5 points upwards compared to the previous survey for all the months surveyed, from October 2022 to February 2023. “, explains the Report, cwith monthly increases of between 6 and 6.2%.
These levels of inflation discount, among other things, the increase in the tariffs of electricity, water, gas, transport, all prices regulated by the national state, by the provinces or by the municipalities.
In relation to the official dollar (nominal wholesale exchange rate ($ / US $) monthly average of working days) the same thing happens given the extremely high volatility of alternative dollars and pressure for an official devaluation of the peso.
The official wholesale dollar stood at $ 143.63 in September 2022. “The REM respondent forecast indicates a monthly increase of $ 9.08 (+ 6.3% monthly) per dollar to $ 152.71 per dollar in October 2022. As for the previous survey, upward corrections were highlighted in the following months. For their part, analysts’ projection for December 2022 was $ 173.13 per dollar (+ $ 3.02 per dollar compared to the previous survey). Therefore, the change in the nominal exchange rate expected by the REM participants is 69.9% year-on-year for December 2022 ”, reads the Report.
For their part, the EMN participants predicted a real change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 by 4.1%, an increase of 0.5 points compared to the value of the previous survey. Meanwhile, economic growth of just 1.0% is expected by 2023. (no change compared to the value of the previous survey) and less than 2% of the Budget 2023 project.
As for foreign trade, analysts estimate that FOB exports of goods would have been even in September US $ 9,694 million (US $ 1,939 million more than forecast in the previous REM) while they are expected to decrease in the coming months to US $ 6,755 million in December 2022. The annual values forecast for 2022 would be US $ 89,344 million for 2022 (US $ 819 million more than expected a month ago ) and US $ 88,000 million by 2023 (US $ 719 million less than predicted in the previous survey).
Meanwhile, imports (CIF) of goods would have amounted to 7,003 million US dollars in September and the projected annual values for 2022 would have been 83,775 million US dollars for 2022 (2,285 million US dollars more than the expected value a month earlier) and US $ 81,000 million by 2023 (US $ 374 million more than the last REM).
Source: Clarin
