Creole rarities. The ministers of the economy are usually doctor No. This is doctor. Yes Of course, Sergio Massa is a politician, not an economist. Between the flurry of holidays, which make transportation difficult for lawmakers, and a rare friendly atmosphere that reigns in Congress, the budget committee hearings were a breeze for the government. Sergio Massa did what Peronism had done neither in this mandate nor in the previous ones, that is to parade in front of the deputies all the officials of the Economy. And with oddities for the record, such as the appearance of the president of the Central Bank, who never went to Congress to discuss the budget. Why was it him? Because the opposition has asked for it and Massa is in “yes to everything” mode whatever his opponents ask him. He even dropped the PASO suspension project with which he threatened Rio Negro deputy Luis Di Giacomo, who usually expresses the tactical movements that the ruling party does not dare to carry out with its own people. To the novelty of the saturation of the exhibitions of officials in the Commission is added another: the meekness of the legislators when examining officials. Apart from the classic reproaches of the audacity of the economic objectives – imaginative in all budget projects – no one has broken the climate. The mildness of the opposition contrasted with the disqualification of the program that its economists normally do. Review and boredom. Or maybe in-depth agreements on the management of clonazepam.
The open veins of the PASO
This week there will be the extension of this political goldsmith’s work which is the Ville Law. The opinion was unanimously approved and the parties hope that this consent will be transferred to the headquarters with the same tranquility with which they expect the budget to be analyzed with such meekness by the Deputies. Massa needs all the votes, that’s why Together for Change got what they wanted, as well as social organizations, with whom the pacts of the Macri era are prolonged. The exchange commitment, as anticipated by this column, is to lower the suspension of the PASO, the subject of analysis in all the sand tables. The ruling party may have the votes to suspend the PASO in both chambers, but there are difficulties in making the decision, because the change of position in the ruling party. In 2020, Albertism was in favor of elimination and Christianity wanted to keep them. Now they directly think the opposite. It is a consequence of the schism within the government, which prevents it from making a strategic decision that goes along with everyone. The reason for the current dissent is in the unresolved plots ahead of the elections. That means:
1) It is hasty to make a decision without knowing how the electoral match will end. For coalitions, being united is not the same as being divided. Nothing threatens, for now, the unity of Together for Change or Front and All, despite the sparks that bounce off the four walls of the cable television studios, but do not pervade the public. Divisions between leaders solve nothing; those who matter are those who can fracture unity in the electoral base. Peronism knows this, which lost 40% of the electorate that supported Fernández between 2019 and 2021. Even the opposition, which in that period also lost votes, but kept its percentage of the total, maintained the support of its constituency, which is what counts in a country with the vote.
2) The actors of extreme polarization seem more armored for elections without STEP. Without this system, there could be a fragmentation of the supply in which the irreducible supporters of Mauricio Macri and Cristina de Kirchner stand out. Their advisers speculate they could have a support percentage close to 20%, which is what put Carlos Menem (24.45%) and Néstor Kirchner (22.25%) in the ballot in 2003. Buy now, Mauricio and Cristina would say.
3) It is appropriate revision bias which says a suspension of the PASO could blow up the opposition. The differences in leadership are evident in the rudeness that emerges with statements such as Facundo Manes’s about Macri’s “institutional populism” (?). Or the difficulties in appointing a head of the interlocking of Deputies, which Mario Negri actually coordinates from his office, but who is guided by an enlarged table.
4) To believe that JxC leaders have no idea they are interested in being together is naive. In the post-election analysis conducted by Jesús Rodríguez – today the brain of radicalism – in November 2021, reached conclusions that are still valid: • JxC was less than two percentage points from winning a presidential election in the first round if the results of those legislative elections were repeated • If the results were repeated in 2023, when senators from 8 provinces are renewed, there would be a tie with the FdT in the upper house, 33 to 33, and would become the first minority in the Chamber of Deputies. Since 2015, in every election JxC has increased its percentage of votes. In that year, the coalition’s design was the product of an agreement between leaders who adjusted a winning agenda, yielding in exchange for unity. Among them were Mauricio Macri, Elisa Carrió, Ernesto Sanz, Enrique Nosiglia, Emilio Monzó, Federico Storani, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and their satellites. There is no reason why boqueteros of this magnitude should not produce a similar agreement again, which would allow them to formalize applications that, with PASO or without PASO, represent to the electorate that makes them sure winners in 5 of Argentina’s 7 largest districts. In 2021, JxC won or finished second in all 24 districts.
5) The ruling party also had in 2019 a table of understanding that allowed them a virtuous unity that made them win. Today the leadership is fractured and the program separates them: the Peronism of Buenos Aires (Christianity) repudiates the agenda of Olivos (Alberto and Massa). But they have not lost the idea that divided they will surely lose. in 2022 the government rejected the flags and took the opposition slogans as its own: agreement with the IMF, deficit reduction, spending adjustment, subsidy cuts, recognition of inflation as a problem, war against the Mapuche malón, etc. It is the reaction to the loss of nearly 5 million votes they suffered between 2019 and 2021.
The Court under consideration of power
The courage of the next few hours will be brought by justice, moved at all levels, because On November 20 he assumes the new Council of the Judiciary of 20 members. It is the form of the original law, which provides for the presidency of the president of the Supreme Court. The pools agree, so far, that the ruling party could reach 11 members against 9 of the opposition. The integration is judicial and the Court has the possibility to express what its criteria are in relation to three disputed issues:
1) If Judge Alberto Lugones can stand for a new term (he is related to the ruling party).
2) If the indirect election of a representative of the universities does not violate the principle of transparency of the vote (which would give the two delegates of that class to the ruling party).
3) If Peronism can repeat from November the mockery of a division of the legislative blocs to keep second minorities. The first two plots navigate uncertainly. In the third, the Court can object to that manganeta which excluded Senator Luis Juez from representing a second minority. It is an abstract question, because his assignment will last until November. But the court is considering warning Congress that will not allow these tricks to be repeated from November to extend the power. The Court prefers not to get involved in matters that should be resolved by politics and doesn’t like these cases being resolved – only the judge’s question is in the high court. Nor does Horacio Rosatti seem interested in entering into controversy with this advice which has an expiration date. For this reason, he has not called a plenary session of the councilors since July. To the point that the budget was signed by the councilors one by one, and there was no plenary approval. One of the councilors, who wears a beard, jokes: “We have to ask for an investigation into where Rosatti is.” But if Rosatti wants power, he can handle it forcefully if the Council is 10-10 and breaks the tie.
Macri has a radical friend
The week of absolute calm will serve a test the negotiating spirit which will allow the government to have a budget in which Massa risks his life. The opposition becomes hyperactive in every possible forum. Macri has triggered a series of meetings just back from Spain with the radicals who govern. Rodolfo Suárez de Mendoza paid him a visit on Thursday. Another ruler will follow, who is not (yet) Morales. The meeting with the man from Mendoza was a classic dialogue between politicians, a species that never talks about politics when they get together. They talk about life, travel, the world, Ukraine, the economy. Of politics (that is, the struggle to achieve, maintain and lose, or not, power) not a word. And less than the superficial grudges, such as the Manes or Milei sagas, which in this case raise the price for Macri. “-I am far from party things, my thing is management”, “Rolo” usually replies when they lead him on that slippery ground. Faithful to the type of meeting, with Hernan Lombardi as matchmaker, Suárez accepted Macri’s invitation to the presentation of the book “Why?”. He asks what “Rolo” was careful not to do. It would talk about politics, and politicians don’t talk about politics.
Portrait downloads; it was Yrigoyen’s turn
To pacify relations with organic radicals, such as Morales or Lousteau, who have distanced themselves from Manes’ phrases about the former president, Macri took care that an expression on populism pronounced in a Madrid activity with Mario Vargas Llosa in the flirtatious Nuevo Club Madrid, from Calle de Cedaceros: “Next year, the country that invented populism with Evita and Perón, could be the first to get rid of it and export it to the world, which is embracing populism with great enthusiasm.” For the game, what is the difference with the previous sentences? This arose from that accusation of the portrait of Hipólito Yrigoyen. Macri was passing by a cocktail party hosted by the conservatives of the Fundación Libertad, but left the Baquianos in Argentine affairs – Gerardo Bongiovanni, Darío Lopérfido, Miguel Ángel Cortés, Deputy Cordovan Gustavo Santos – to explain what Peronism was and why Macri was a candidate in 2003 in alliance with Eduardo Duhalde’s PJ. Including Yrigoyen, an indisputable radical myth, in a mausoleum of opprobrium cost him free fights with the radicals, who basically want him more for convenience than for love.. Will Miguel Pichetto answer him on Wednesday, when he will produce a show with a large orchestra in the CABA gastronomic union hall? It will be the presentation of the leaders of the 24 districts that articulate their party, the Federal Republican Meeting. This sector is part of the JxC table, but it reproaches Macri for wandering in the tunnel of time discovering the Peronist populists. “- The task of recruiting non-Christian Peronists complicates us”, complains the leadership of republican Peronism
Source: Clarin
