Even if the management of Sergio Massa is synonymous, at least until now, with financial calm; among economists who consult businessmen there is no certainty of duration. Some have been in government and knowingly speak: “It fails to seduce investors,” they say.
Others, paraphrasing Carlos Melconian, refer to the robbery plan: “Take-off is not possible,” they say. And there are those who outline a scenario of arrival in a global economy that has become a headwind.
Former minister Dante Sica argues that the likelihood of a financial or foreign exchange crisis has not disappeared. “Massa has two twin deficits, the tax and commercial who are not eligible for the loan. It is true that it has calmed down but it is a tranquility with collateral damage. He had a still latent exchange rate explosion scenario, plus external risk and internal drought, ”he outlined before Clarín.
For Marcela Cristini, senior economist at Fiel, «he is faced with short-term puzzle with a serious political problem“. In his view, “there is a failed political program that fails to strengthen the economy, it is always hoped that the speeches do not spoil the few successes”.
The need for export
Cristini notes that there is consensus on the importance of seeking an outlet for export. “The starting point of a high foreign debt and a very limited attractiveness towards investments it leaves the door open almost exclusively to exports as a financing mechanism. But at the same time it reveals “a spirit of every man for himself without the possibility of building expectations, which does not help investments and leaves little room for maneuver”.
In a meeting with leading businessmen, one of the most respected consultants in the red circle, who asked that his name not be used, outlined three possible scenarios. Assign the same possibilities to all three.
So he spoke soft landing and he mentioned in that case, variables under control even if without an economic plan, a low social conflict, a leadership of Massa with Alberto Fernández that he respects and in which Cristina has the last word.
In the case of a emergency landing, indicates tensions without lack of control, social conflict without overflow and controllable tensions between Massa, Fernández and Cristina. And if the plane crashes there will be lack of control of the variables, loss of control of the road and open confrontation between Massa, Alberto and Cristina.
The international scene
The consulting firm Equilibra, under the direction of Martín Rapetti, describes an international panorama that does not seem a good omen an Argentina going through the third consecutive year of La Niña, with a lack of rain that implies a lower harvest volume and falling prices due to the super dollar.
Equilibra thinks that Massa’s strategy will be “Do not innovate, but the shortage of currency will continue”. They expect low growth and inflation of at least 100% by 2023. “It is difficult for us to think of large volumes of capital income, taking advantage of the fact that Argentine assets are cheap. The coming months are complex and uncertain ”, they conclude.
According to Jorge Vasconcelos, IERAL’s chief researcher, the slowdown in the level of activity can be a tool to curb inflation and import demand.
“But if the brake on activity were to occur and these effects were not perceptible, we would be in the presence unnecessary austerity, when the drop in consumption does not lead to greater savings ”. He observes: “Economic policy is entering a tautological dynamics, as inflation needs to slow down on a monthly basis to regain confidence. But, in a circular way, for inflation to stop rising, more confidence is needed. ”That’s what’s missing.
Source: Clarin
