– How is the program coming with the IMF?
– Both the IMF board and the 2023 draft budget presented by the government indicate that both sides have committed to respecting the program signed in March. Although Argentina did not meet its reserve target for the second quarter, the Fund approved the September disbursement of US $ 3.9 billion.
What happened to the goals in the third quarter?
– The soybean dollar allowed the Central Bank to purchase nearly $ 4,000 million in September and the Treasury to obtain an extraordinary collection for export duties. For this reason, both the net international reserves target and the fiscal target were met. Even the monetary one, since no more transitional advances have been requested since 8 July, has been satisfied.
– What to expect after the soybean dollar?
– In the very short term it is necessary to closely monitor the Central Bank’s performance in the foreign exchange market. The soybean dollar has allowed an extraordinary build-up of net international reserves, but everything indicates that in October, without soybean currencies, the previous situation of selling dollars on the official market will return.
-To this is added the exit for tourism ….
-In July and August, the net balance of foreign exchange from tourism was in deficit of US $ 750 million per month and in November, through the Qatar World Cup, outflows could increase. In addition, the August foreign exchange market data confirms that trade debt for import payments continues to rise.
– What are the challenges?
– The most complex challenges will be meeting the fiscal target and international reserves for the last quarter. Given the landscape outside, it doesn’t look easy. In the first rounds of October, the Central again sold dollars.
-How do you see the tax situation?
-In fiscal terms, we believe that to achieve the goal, the government will reduce the pace of capital spending, some of which was already reflected in the 2023 Budget. And it will accelerate inflation which plays a game in its favor, higher nominal revenues and, if there are no adjustments in the items, settle some expenses in real terms. The savings from reducing subsidies in the last quarter of 2022 would have been reduced, so a delay in segmentation will not be decisive for reaching the target in the short term.
Source: Clarin
