Although the hikes in electricity and gas tariffs have an impact in November, the inflation data for October presents an inertia that marks an increase that will be approximately 6.5%, according to economists. It happens that this month, the impact of major increases in rumors such as food, textile and prepaid.
In the less optimistic forecasts, the consumer price index (CPI) reported monthly by INDEC will be above 6.5%. Meanwhile, others say it will be closer to 6%. This is the case of the consulting firm Seido, according to its economist Matias Carugati.
According to the Central Bank’s Market Expectations Survey (REM), which collects the opinion of various consultants, the average expected for this month is 6.6%, or 0.3% more than the forecast of the previous survey.
In this context, the year-over-year change in prices is on track to close the year in three figures: it should be above 100%. This situation raises a question mark on compliance with the inflation forecast for 2023, which according to the budget recently voted on by the Deputies, is 60% for the entire year.
The October inflation data, according to consultancy Eco Go, would be at 6.5%. Among other things, because “the increase in food prices was offset by the news that the increase in electricity (18.2%) and gas (10.35%), following the removal of subsidies, would have affected bills starting in November, “the consultant said.
“However, regulated products pushed the overall indicator for the month higher, showing increases in prepaid (11.53%), water (10%), domestic service (7.5%), telephone, internet and television (19.8%) and fuel (6% average)among others.
During this month, one of the Inflation warnings remain on alimonydespite the official initiatives to launch programs such as Careful Prices or Fair Prices to contain the increase in mass consumption.
According to the records of the consultancy LCG, which measures 8,000 prices every week in five supermarket chains, food accumulates a 7.9% increase in the past four weeks and 7.2% in end-to-end measurement.
The dairy products and vegetables, according to this online survey, lead monthly inflation in increments of more than 11%, considering the variation up to the fourth week of the month. In particular, the item dairy products and eggs grew in the month by 12.4%, while vegetables grew by 11.3%. Meats increased by 5.4%, fruit by 7.8%, ready meals by 3.5% and the item which includes sugar, honey, sweets and cocoa by 6.7%.
In this survey, baked goods, cereals and pasta increased by 9.4%, oils by 6%, drinks and infusions to be consumed at home by 7.8%.
For Eco Go, the food survey corresponding to the third week of the month recorded a variation of 1.8% compared to the previous week. This implies an acceleration of 1 percentage point compared to the previous measurement.
“With these data and considering a weekly projection of 1.4% variation for the last of the month, the inflation of food consumed at home in October would rise to 7.1% monthly”He said in his latest report.
Source: Clarin
