The eternal question of Argentine investors, if it is worthwhile bet on the dollar or there are other pesos instruments that act as a hedge and leave profitsit is reprinted on the eve of a year that is financially complicated.
The market’s attention is focused on the inflationary spiral and on the measures that the government can take to try to stop this inertia. At the same time, the relative calm in the foreign exchange market the last few months could be interrupted if the alternative dollar starts to move to correct an incipient but firm delay in the exchange rate.
Clarione he consulted three City analysts on what is the recommended bet to go through the last sixty days of 2022 without major shocks.
“The one that most attracts our attention at the moment it is the tranquility that reigns in financial dollars”, Underlined Pedro Siaba Serrate, of PPI, who recalled that since mid-September the cash with settlement has remained in a range between 302 and 313 dollars and that this level seems“ cheap ”compared to the peaks of this price. “For reference, the $ 180 nominal peak that the CCL had in October 2020 would be equivalent to $ 517 pesos today, while the $ 338 before Massa’s arrival (July 21) is now equivalent to a $ 414 CCL.”
With this in mind, the analyst recommended: “Turning to hard currency instruments, or, in other words, that they have the financial dollar implied in their price. Both sovereign bonds for the more aggressive, and government bonds, corporate ONs and even CEDEARs for the less daring profiles can benefit “in pesos” from a jump in the CCL “.
The general consensus is that, far from giving up, inflation will not be able to break the 6% threshold in the next two months and, despite some volatility in the debt market by weight, assets indexed to rising prices remain the favorites.
Lucas Buscaglia, macroeconomics and fixed income analyst at IOL Investonline, explained: “We suggest investors looking to position themselves over the next two months to look for the CER securities or bonds that best suit the terms they are looking for and the risk they are willing. to tolerate. In the last month it has been observed some stress on the CER curve, with falling parity and sharply rising yields, as the market is cautiously looking at the 2023 pesos debt maturities. As a result, for investors with greater risk aversion, we suggest taking positions on instruments with maturity in the first part of 2023 “.
Within this universe, the analyst suggested to include in the portfolio “The letter CER (LECER) issued by the National Treasury expiring in February 2023, the X17F3. The letter to date has an expected return (IRR) of CER + 3.3%, offering a differential with respect to the evolution of the index. In turn, taking the estimates of the last REM, the estimated internal rate of return (IRR) stands at annualized value of 114% “.
For his part, Lucas Yatche, of Liebre Capital, joined the bonds in pesos indexed to inflation, the Discount Letters, at a fixed rate, especially the very short-term ones, such as those expiring in January. It also included corporate bonds, such as the NGOs of San Miguel or Cresud, which pay dollar yields. “For a profile with a greater appetite for risk, government bonds in dollars have very attractive entry prices and if the investor can wait and bear the bad debts, when the headwind of the international markets calms down and becomes a tail of wind , these titles They have great upside potential. “
Source: Clarin
