So far, in 2022, the blue dollar has only advanced by 85 pesos. At the beginning of November it is listed on $ 291having started the year at $ 206.
With this price, blue moved 42% between January and October, while retail inflation reached 74% over the same period. After the jump that brought it to $ 350 after Martín Guzmán’s departure from the Ministry of Economy, the informal fell to $ 270, which it reached on September 5. It has since moved into an interval between $ 280 and $ 295.
The folding of the blue is a consequence of the little demanded. Over the past couple of months, and after the soybean dollar soaring that helped allay fears of a jump in devaluation, savers have turned to other options.
The escalation of tariffs in pesos awakened the fascination of late carry-over, the operation that allows investors to make a difference by betting on pesos by exploiting the stability of alternative dollars.
Today the gap between the blue dollar and the wholesale dollar is 83%. Stability also extends to financial dollars: liquidity, the one used by companies, is sold $ 302.8, an increase of 49% in the year. In the case of the MEP dollar which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, it has risen by 47.5% and reaches $ 290.
The fastest growing dollar is the wholesale dollar, which has already grown 53% over the year. While it has lost the inflation race, it has also narrowed the gap: in the past two months it has grown by about 6.5% per month, a few tenths below prices.
The soybean dollar gave reserves a break in September when the central bank managed to buy $ 5 billion. But October ended with $ 498 million in revenue, and November started off on the wrong foot: on Tuesday, the monetary authority sold $ 27 million and 83 million dollars this Wednesday.
In the meantime, the government has beefed up stocks on imports, launched the Qatari dollar, and now tries to ensure foreign tourists have a more attractive exchange rate to get them to liquidate their currencies in the legal scheme.
The Central Bank’s difficulty in recovering reserves is a signal for analysts the summer change could be interrupted shortly.
One of the main reasons is that agriculture’s foreign exchange supply continues to decline, which led to sales to take advantage of the soybean dollar and now has a lower balance. “Despite greater control over import demand, the decline in foreign exchange supply forces the BCRA to sell,” da Cohen said.
“With this panorama of agricultural supply at a minimum and restricted demand, the BCRA would seem to have no other destiny than to remain in this constant bloodletting (sales and neutral results) until the start of the next dense harvest “, underline from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).
Add to this the fact that rising inflation is also putting the monetary liabilities of the Central Bank under pressure. “We are paying interest equivalent to $ 500 billion per month and that figure will continue to rise. As long as monetary liabilities continue to rise and reserves remain at levels below $ 40 billion, gearbox adjustment is a matter of time “emphasizes the economist Salvador Di Stéfano.
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Source: Clarin
