The Government will receive a delegation of IMF technicians tomorrow to advance in the negotiation of a new disbursement of 5,800 million US dollars. The arrival of officials from Washington, whose names have not yet been disclosed, will aim to direct the third quarter audit and assess how the objectives for the fourth quarter fit into a context marked by the loss of reserves and the difficulties of containment of inflation. .
From the Ministry of Economy they confirmed that it will not be a mission, but the visit of a reduced delegation without the presence of the head of mission, Luis Cubeddu, nor of the regional director, Illan Goldfajn, while the Fund did not give details. The idea is to continue the dialogue already started with Sergio Massa’s team led by the Chief of Staff, Leonardo Madcur, through face-to-face meetings and also via zoom.
In the latest approved revision, the Fund eased its annual reserve target and granted some exemptions or graces, such as the one related to the creation of the soybean dollar, a practice that discourages the body. Meanwhile, the pending fiscal data for September showed a primary deficit of 1.34% of GDP, below the expected limit with the help of the soybean dollar collection, the liquefaction of inflation spending and the delay in payments to suppliers.
Moving forward, the expectation is that the 2023 Budget will allow for a “significant” decrease in spending, despite the incorporation of $ 500,000 million expenses and the $ 7,000 to $ 10,000 bonus for retirement and pensions up to two minimum wages. in December, January and February, announced this Thursday by Massa and that it would have a temporary impact on inflation which this year aims at 100%.
In Economics they ensure that all of this year’s goals are “achievable”, so he can get the disbursement scheduled for December 10, essential to cancel the payments to the agency of 2,600 million dollars last month. But they also know that extending the negotiations over time could add complications as the Fund board evaluates the 2023 agenda.
The focus is on the Central Bank, which already sold $ 618 million in nine rounds in a row in November, despite tighter foreign trade restrictions. “If deterioration occurs in the next few weeks and 70 sticks are lost per day, this goes to the council and generates quilombos for the next year,” they explain in an official dispatch, where they hope the trickle will loosen as soon as the new import system. is normalized.
The government is also expecting the arrival of funds from the organizations (500 million dollars from the IDB at the end of the month and 288 million dollars from China for the reactivation of the works on the Santa Cruz dams) and the contribution of agricultural exports. Although cereal companies fear that the drought will cut $ 8 billion in 2023, near Massa they believe they will have to wait until January. However, they assume that the strong inflow of foreign currency will last until April.
For analysts, the next few months will be difficult. “By the end of December the net reserves would reach approximately $ 5,000 million. We believe that in the next two months the Central will be a net seller, with a significant deficit in the service account and that the outflow of dollars will be offset by disbursements from the fund. . If the December disbursement is delayed, the reserves will close lower “, Alejandro Giacoia, of Econviews.
And poor BCRA performance could trigger more exchange controls. “It will be crucial for the monetary authority to stop the currency bleeding that has been evident in recent days to get through the summer until the dense harvest arrives. The trend of agriculture in the coming months will be under market control, given that that the level of exports, which will determine the severity of the restrictions, “said Bruno Bonfati, of Ecolatina.
Source: Clarin
