This Tuesday, the INDEC will announce the inflation for October, which according to private forecasts will exceed 6.5% and thus it will stop the downtrend it had been showing in recent months. And in November, the pressure on food, taxes, expenses and private schools is already being felt.
After 7.4% in July, a record so far for the year, the index fell to 7% in August and 6.2% in September.
For the Freedom and Progress Foundation, October inflation was 6.8%with food growing by 8.3%.
Thus, in the first 10 months of 2022, accumulated inflation reaches 77.4%. Lautaro Moschet, economist of Libertad y Progreso explained that “the new acceleration puts an end to the optimism emanating from the ruling party, after two months with a decreasing trend. Inflation is still far from being under control e in the last quarter of the year, regulated prices will exert pressure on the index”.
Paula Gándara, CIO of Adcap Asset Management, noted that “the slope of inflation is upwards. The market expects, following the CABA data, that October national inflation is between 7.3% and 7.5%”.
Inflation in the City of Buenos Aires was known last week, moving very similarly to the national index, with a record 7% for October.
“If the country enters a more optimistic economic cycle, with greater stability in the main variables, we could expect a drop in inflation. However, the macroeconomic imbalance is very large and in an election year like 2023 will be, there are more questions than answers,” Gándara stressed.
The collection of retail prices of C&T consulting for GBA had a monthly increase of 6.8% in October. “It was higher than 6.2% in September (revised downwards due to the postponement of tariff adjustments) and 3.7% in October 2021. In this way the change on twelve months rose to 87.4%”.
Consulting firm LCG’s projection for the past month is 6.7% The food price survey has risen more than 7% per month.
go up in November
New increases are already in progress in November which will put pressure on the index. Rates will go up of water due to the elimination of subsidies for higher income sectors (on average 25.2%) and electricity and gas bills will also increase (18 and 10% respectively).
Moreover, it is estimated a 10% increase in expenses due to peer review of construction workers. Other increases to come are those of methane (2.2%); private schools in the province of Buenos Aires (6.5%; and taxis (20%).
The pressure on food also makes itself felt. So far in November, LCG reports an increase in this category of 1.9%.
On the other hand, the average monthly inflation slowed down for the fourth consecutive week And it stands at 6.1%, the lowest value in fifteen weeks.
This month, the new price freeze announced by the government and which will take effect in December could counteract this. LCG states that “there has been an increase in the percentage of products within the basket with price increases this week, going from 21% the week before to 34%. This probably responds to hikes that anticipate new price freezes”.
AQ
Source: Clarin
