The rise of the blue dollar does not stop: It jumped seven pesos this Thursday and has so far advanced 29 pesos in November. The dollar’s informal rally comes after three months of calm in exchange rates and in the midst of a flight from the burden of investors that is once again driving the dollarisation of portfolios.
This $319 listing is the highest since the beginning of Sergio Massa’s management in the Ministry of Economy, but it is 31 pesos below the peak of 350 dollars reached in July, after Martín Guzmán left the government.
Blue advanced 55% on the year, below inflation which is set to end the year near 100%. Informal is still moving below official, which is up 60% so far in 2022.
With the wholesaler at $164.8, the gap with respect to blue reaches 93%. “Despite the fact that the central bank continues to accelerate the rate of devaluation, the jump in financial dollars over the past week has driven the exchange rate gap to its highest level in the last month,” the Cohen group points out.
Financial dollars persist in the low profile they maintained over the week: MEP up 1.2%, $315.45while cash with cash returned 0.5%, a $324.3.
The Treasury’s difficulties in renewing the debt maturities leave the pesos on the street looking for a way out in the dollar. “In a context where uncertainty is taking hold, the Treasury is finding it increasingly difficult to roll over maturities and is putting pressure on the financial program which will conclude this year with further issuance. Meanwhile, with the active participation of the BCRA, the peso instruments of the short tranche rise, while government bonds take advantage of the better context for emerging markets to continue rising”, Cohen points out.
“We spent 3 months with the dollars stable while the rest of the prices in the economy were up 6%/7% a month. The increases we see today are simply an update on an expired pricenothing has changed dramatically to lower the dollar or the gap,” said economist Christian Buteler.
If the blue had followed the evolution of inflation, today it would have reached $282 on August 1st $359. In this way, the informal market still has a “way” to adjust prices.
On a day marked by the US Thanksgiving holiday and low activity in the local market, the Central Bank managed to buy 1 million dollars and already has $5 million in three business days this week.
Despite stopping the bleeding that led it to lose $950 million earlier this month, Central continues to struggle to replenish its reserves.
Against this background, the versions that the government will launch a new soybean dollar which leads producers to increase clearance. Due to the effect of inflation, this new edition of the soy dollar would be priced at $225 -twenty-five pesos more than the September edition-. This way they will try to capture part of the $5 billion which is equivalent to 25% of the crop left unsold.