At another time any official would have said, “Debt in pesos is never a problem. The problem is dollars,” but these days the two issues are relevant.
Partly because the minister Sergio Massa promised the IMF that it will not call on Central Bank advances (simple issue) to finance the Treasury and also because inflation threatens, the government will face a major test in the next 15 days.
The maturities of the debt in pesos are clear: through the end of the month they represent 404,000 million dollarsBetween December and April they reach $5.689 billion and through December they amount to $15.557 billion.
After the second version of the soybean dollar (jumped 37% to $230) which enabled the Central Bank to buy nearly $700 million this month, the foreign exchange market has experienced some calm in a short financial week marked by the judicial sentence to the vice president Cristina Kirchner.
For the Treasury, the test to obtain funds to cover maturities takes place in a purely financial uncertainty beyond the political changes that will also impact the markets.
The rise of Bonds in Argentine dollars The aftermath of the ruling and the vice president’s announcement that she will not run in the next election have been sustained, but far from shocking.
There were also foreign financial operators who attributed more weight to the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will moderate the rate hike (half a point instead of three quarters) than to the outcome of the ruling on the vice president
Bonds continued to give good news on holidays and the Deputy Economy Minister, Gabriel Rubinsteinhe risked saying that inflation is declining and that the intention of the economic team is to move towards a unified exchange rate.
Analysts like Miguel Angel Broda or Marina dal Poggetto They continue to bet that Minister Sergio Massa will try to avoid a devaluation by all means on the grounds that he expects inflation to fall to 4% per month in April.
Does this bet mean that economic activity will deepen the decline in industry and construction in October?
Shortages of imported inputs, parts and products are growing and the delay in payment of imports would be equal to US$ 9,000 milliona figure that the private sector could hardly achieve at an official dollar of $170. Will $330 be the dollar price that importers estimate they will face?
In the report he delivered to the Newsweek portal, Rubinstein said a major focus continues to be stockpiling, something the market monitors closely. One could argue that when the central bank stops buying dollars, confidence in the government’s financial viability begins to wane.
The government insists it will not devalue sharply as the market calculates that the real multilateral exchange rate of Argentine trade is 25% behind and the drought affecting much of the country is seriously affecting the agricultural season and dollar income from exports in 2023.
The government got dollars from the International Monetary Fund to pay for the end of the year, some more than a loan from the Inter-American Development Bank and those from the soybean dollar.
From that point of view, the relief represents a reality, but it must be taken into account that while with the “1 soy dollar” (from 140 to 200 dollars) the Central Bank has managed to purchase $8.120 millionwith 2 I would only get a few $3.9 billion to bring net reserves to just above $4.8 billion.
But assuming the dollar side is safe, the challenge now is how many pesos the Treasury can withdraw from the market over the next few days.
The rates it offers speak for themselves. A CER-indexed bond in March next year offers 3.3% additional income, while another bond maturing in March 2024 gives a rate of 11.8%. Debt in pesos faces the old saying these days, when almsgiving is great…
Source: Clarin
