The blue dollar has had a slight recovery and reaches $315three pesos above the price it closed at yesterday.
Despite this rally, the blue is still below the $320 it reached at the end of November. It has since started to deflate and this decline deepened earlier this week amid higher foreign exchange supply supported by the need for companies to comply with the payment of Christmas bonuses and for the offer of foreign tourists who visit the country.
“There has been an increase in the supply of foreign currency in recent days, which we attribute to companies having to earn pesos to meet Christmas bonuses,” market sources said.
Add to this, despite the fact that this week the dollar for foreigners started, which allows them to get a $322 deal by paying by cardmost visitors still go to the informal market to exchange tickets.
These two routes fueling supply over the past few hours offset the higher demand seen last week from $2 soybeans. So far this month, soybeans cleared $1,423 million at an exchange rate of $230. This allows them to hold pesos that quickly revert to dollarization through the MEP dollar or cash with liquidity (CCL).
With this greater demand, the financial dollars have risen and have also pulled the blue which has the MEP and the CCL as a reference.
but this week the rise of alternative dollars has cooled off. In this round, the MEP dollar, which is trading on the Buenos Aires stock market, remains at its level $322ten pesos less than the end of last week.
And cash with liqui, the way private use is dollarized, is being advocated $322.
Last week, the CCL hit $342, the same price it reached in the July exchange rate turmoil following Martín Guzmán’s departure from the Palacio de Hacienda. In those days, blue briefly touched $350
In the early days of Sergio Massa’s administration, alternative dollars deflated and by early September, they were below $300.
What’s coming
That currency summer lasted until mid-November when the market began to heat up. Though it’s now back on hiatus, analysts point to it Both blue and liquid cash still have a long way to go.
The reason is that they are behind inflation and the official dollar. Informal advanced only 52% on the year, CCL increased 64% and official climbed 67%, while inflation is forecast to close 2022 near 100%.
Going forward, analysts see factors that could push up the alt dollars. The prospect that drought will further reduce foreign exchange inflows in an election year where the market has traditionally turned to dollarisation of wallets leads to renewed expectations of alternative price increases.
“Ahead of this week’s inflation data, the focus continues to be on the BCRA reserve clearance and retention rate at this stage II soybean dollar to serve as a bridge through next year’s harvest and again with the risk of a lower supply due to the severe drought,” says economist Gustavo Ber.
“Beyond today’s breath, finance dollars threatened to awaken to greater agent dollarization against the challenging prospects of default on excess dollars and pesos, as well as the accumulated currency lag, as they also anticipate the usual decline in demand for money in the coming months, an effect that tends to accelerate the search for hedges,” Ber said.
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Source: Clarin
