After a 2022 marked by just 15% more buying and selling transactions than last year (albeit at low levels) and by a deepening of the decline in prices, Real estate entrepreneurs are starting to estimate what the next year will be like for the sector. Most are optimistic about sales, barring property prices going up. On the contrary, They expect the downtrend to continue.
Ariel Champanier, CEO of Re/Max Premium, for example, predicted that the coming year will feature price stabilization and market reactivation. “I don’t think prices will go up, there’s no reason for that to happen. A year of stabilization is coming and as we are facing a possible change of government there will be more expectations among the people. The upward adjustment could only happen in 2024, ”said the real estate expert.
Miguel Di Maggio, director of the Depa real estate agency, is more skeptical and contextualizes: “for specialists, the economy in 2023 will present itself as equal or worse than the year that is ending. For this reason, the real estate sector is expected to, Without a tool that leverages the purchase of real estate, it is impossible for the sector to become dynamic”he opined.
A possible reactivation in the sale of real estate next year will be the product, after all, of the need for a dismantled middle class to have to part with assets in order not to diminish the quality of their life”, he warns. And he agrees that the rebound of sales “will not be accompanied by a rebound in property values. Indeed, during 2023 the value of properties will drop by 10% compared to current values”risked the businessman.
What has happened, in terms of prices during this year -in the used apartment segment, in the Federal Capital- is that the cumulative drop in values per m2 between March and November was -7.72% in the case of studio flats, -6.00% for two-room apartments and -10.04% and -10.05% respectively for three-room and four-room apartments, according to data from the Real Estate Report.
According to Miguel Ludmer, director of Interwin, the market has been active this year from both developers and investors and their feeling is that “the real estate market lives in a parallel reality to the economy and politics”.
“With an economy that will end up with near 100% annual inflation this year, real estate looks like a noble alternative to value preservation where many people thus defend their savings – let alone have them in pesos. One of the few dollar goods they can buy is bricks,” he says.
“Regardless of the growth of the dollar, inflation and more, real estate retains its value. They can go down in price, but they do it to a lesser extent. Therefore, they continue to be a good safeguard”, enthuses the entrepreneur.
Ludmer predicts that in 2023 the greed of developers and buyers will increase despite “this market moving without a single fall in mortgage credit and with a high tax impact,” he recalls.
According to the entrepreneur’s vision, the market is in the middle of historic apartmentssales are very close to cost, so I understand everything will point to growth,” he said.
Esteban Edelstein Pernice, director of Castex real estate, also argues that demand will remain “at a good pace” in the coming year.
“We see the problem from the supply side, basically focused on the approval issues of new initiatives. There is a great opportunity for the province of Buenos Aires to improve its approval processes. Thus, many new projects would pour onto the market, generating a lot of work and economic growth,” he adds from his own experience.
“The reality is that there is a lot of land ready for development and a lot of people interested in doing so. A really encouraging prospect for the suburban market, which continues to bet on continuing to grow,” he summarized.
Finally, according to Maria Inés Kries, sales manager of Newland, the sector is “facing a period of opportunity, with historically low values, and with high chances of starting a gradual recovery while the macroeconomic, political and social variables align in a scenario of predictability”, he underlined.
Source: Clarin
