The soybean 2 dollar clearance rate begins to slow down. It started on November 28th at $292 million and this week it dropped to 68 million dollars Monday and 63 million dollars Tuesday. If the last days level is maintained for the rest of the month, there is a risk of not meeting the commitment to liquidate $3 billion by 31 December.
The soybean 2 dollar establishes a differentiated exchange rate for the export of the oilseeds from $230 between November 28 and December 31a 38% improvement against the official dollar.
By putting this system into operation, the government has announced that it has reached a commitment with soybeans to liquidate $3 billion throughout the period.
Until December 13, the contribution of the soybean dollar was added 1,485 million dollars, which allowed the Central Bank to buy 802 million dollars and so cut the October and November sales streak that led to his parting ways $1.5 billion, almost a third of what it had acquired in September with the first edition of the soy dollar.
In September, the pact stipulated that soy would liquidate $5 billion. This objective has been more than achieved since liquidation has been achieved $7.6 billion and which allowed the central to pocket 5 billion dollars.
The drought effect
When wondering why the clearance rate is slowing, analysts focus on the effect of the drought.
“This time it’s difficult because the drought is very strong. This causes producers to prioritize savings because they don’t believe the next campaign will be good“, explains the economist Salvador di Stefano.
“We are heading towards a very strong financial crisis scenario in the sector. The Government should work right now on the possibility of restructuring liabilities, otherwise the succession of recalls from creditors and bankruptcies will be very large during the year. It’s the third consecutive dry season,” says Di Stéfano.
Pablo Repetto, from Aurum Valores, points out that if the rate of currency sales we have seen these days does not improve, “The settlement would be less than approximately $500 million. But when you see soy commercialized on the market, the pace it’s having would give room to achieve the goal.”
What Repetto points out is that “there is less currency liquidation than expected, but soybean trading is on target.”
The economist adds that “many producers have used this window to compensate for the lack of income caused by the drought of wheat. And this was verified above all at the beginning of the program”.
“Going forward, we couldn’t rule it out the fear of the blow that drought causes to the dense harvest pushes producers to prefer to keep the ‘old’ soybeans until we see how they’re doing in the current campaign, which is very complicated.”
For Aurum, if the 3,000 million dollar target is not met, “this would force sales to be more stringent on import payments”.
So far this year, the Central Bank’s accumulated debt with importers reaches $9,000 million and will reach $10,000 million in January.
Now the government has promised to speed up access to foreign currency for companies participating in Fair Price Agreements, but if dollar entry is restricted more than expected, that promise could remain up in the air.
AQ
Source: Clarin
