While waiting for INDEC to announce inflation for November this Thursday at 4pm, a private report warns that the prices of some of the most popular vegetables at home have seen declines in the central market during that period. That fall could to some extent “deflate” the Food and Beverage category of the official indicator.
The figure is no less if we consider that this item – so sensitive for the family budget – has been growing an interannual rate of 91.6%i.e. above general inflation (88%).
According to a survey by the Center for Political Economy (CEPA), there is a correlation between the wholesale prices of the Central Market (MCBA) and retail prices. Therefore, the impact on consumer prices can be predicted. Last month, the segment of vegetables, tubers and legumes (VTL) was recorded. a reduction of 6.4% in Greater Buenos Aires and it is estimated that in the CPI the contraction would reach 10.4%.
analysts expect CPI growth close to 6%. In fact, the only official data known so far, the CPI of the City of Buenos Aires, gave an increase of 5.8% in general in November, with growth of 4.2% in the food sector.
Vegetables represent a large part of the population’s basket consumption. Its incidence in the consumer price index (CPI-INDEC) reaches 2.2% in the Greater Buenos Aires region and reaches 3.6% in the north-east and north-west regions of the country. This set of foods is included in the Food and Soft Drinks category measured by the INDEC and which explains 23% of the total index.
For methodological reasons, the CEPA report is included a sample of four species that together, represent 71% of the marketing volume of the Central Market of Buenos Aires (MCBA): potato (38%), tomato (13%), pumpkin (7%) and onion (13%).
In the analysis by product, squash was the only vegetable that showed a 19% increase.. Onion, which is the product with the greatest year-on-year variation, saw a significant price reduction in November (-25.3%), thus lowering the vegetable segment. In the case of the tomato, the reduction compared to the previous month was 9.6% and in the case of potatoes the price drop was 1.8%.
Another aspect addressed by the CEPA analysis is the gap between wholesale prices and those found in greengrocers and supermarkets. This difference usually ranges from 72% to 130% with a median of 97%. In November, due to price reduction, the gap narrowed to 88.3%. In October it was 96.3%.
“Analysing the composition of marketing channels in the fruit and vegetable sector, we find that supermarkets occupy 23.1% of the commercial volume, while most of it is sold through greengrocers, with 51.5%, and supermarkets, with 20.3%”, declared the work.
In the case of large supermarkets, the weighted average of the price variation of the four vegetables in the month of November emerged a drop of 11.8%. It remains to be seen what will happen in December, when the New Year celebrations further increase demand.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
