Slowly, Miguel Fish became a key figure in the plan of Sergio Massa. Overcame some disagreements in September due to the launch of the soybean dollar, now head of the Central Bank maintains a fluid dialogue with the minister and collaborates on several fronts by encouraging soybeans to obtain dollars, repaying Treasury debt and absorbing excess pesos, a scheme whose other side is a bigger monetary issue.
The help is reflected in the growing assistance of the Central Bank (BCRA) to finance the treasury. This issue, according to Equilibra’s calculations, would end the year at about 2.6 trillion dollars, more than 3% of GDP. Although since Massa took office, financing through the traditional route of temporary advances has been suspended to comply with the IMF, Pesce issued pesos to buy the bonds of the Ministry of Economy and buy the soybean dollar currency I and II.
To avoid exchange rate and inflationary pressures, the central banker had to sterilize the injection of these pesos through the Leliq transmitted and pass. The central posts said debt to the banks to capture the excess pesos, they are funds that the entities take from their customers and lend to the BCRA. The cost of the public sector is the payment of a nominal 75% interest rate annually in the case of Leliq (107% effective).
“The Central Bank indirectly finances the Treasury By buying the soybean dollar and bonds on the secondary market, the corollary is that this issuance is helping to support the soybean dollar in a high inflation environment, the monetary base expands and ends up absorbing it with Leliq. The problem is those remunerated liabilities start to grow,” he said Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinafounding partner of Equilibra.
According to the data of Francis Ballester, director of Mindy-Economics, after the financial crisis in June that ended with the resignation of Martín Guzmán, the shares of Leliq e pass accelerated and it grew 109% year-on-year in November. This is the highest level since April 2021 and a pace of more than 92.4% year-on-year inflation in November, so the central debt is no longer liquefied by price dynamics.
The result is that the market starts following that variable with greater caution. “The growth of the Leliqs causes, on the one hand, the Central Bank to ensure that the monetary base does not grow as much, but on the other hand, since the Leliqs that the banks have are the counterpart of the deposits, the latter grow. That’s why the parallel exchange rate moves in a similar pattern to these aggregates and also, to some extent, to inflation,” Ballester explained.
The increase in this debt is worrying because it capitalizes on high interest rates in the short term, potentially increasing pressure on the foreign exchange market. This adds another factor of monetary expansion that the Central must resort to to contain the pesos flowing from the other taps. With a stock of $9.7 million, the “ball” of remunerated liabilities represents 9.5% of GDPjust under 10.3% at the end of 2017, according to Equilibra.
In the first part of the year, rates below inflation allowed the debt to liquefy and become manageable. But since Guzmán’s departure, the BCRA was forced to raise them in the face of accelerating prices, which meant the debt was no longer liquidable. “The stock of liabilities has more than doubled this year and to the extent that the deficit is not reduced and the demand for money increases, it will continue to grow,” said an Econviews report.
Although the demand for pesos increases at the end of the year due to the payment of Christmas bonuses, holiday and vacation expenses, now all eyes are on 2023. The feeling is that the Headquarters will not be able to deal with all fronts at the same time, especially that of prices. “I meanthe “automatic” machine. of the BCRA to maintain monetary absorption is increasing and with it the difficulty of lowering inflation,” said economist Jorge Neyro.
Thus, in an election year, the use of this “machine” will depend on the decrease in the fiscal deficit and the pesos that the Economy obtains on the debt market. It raised $785 billion this Wednesday while paying effective rates as high as 117%. Private banks and importers collaborated, there were contacts with the opposition and the FGS of ANSES, led by Campor Santiago Fraschina, helped. Everything for that Massa goes to the semifinalswhich is arriving in March without surprises.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
