The surprise of the 4.9% inflation rate in November brought about another novelty: for the first time in a year, traditional fixed terms beat inflation.
In the wholesale segment, the average rate offered by banks is 5.8% And in retailers it is 6.3%. In both cases, the performance outperformed inflation last month.
“For the first time in 12 months, fixed terms, with a monthly yield of 5.8%, beat inflation, which came in at 4.9% in November. The real rate was 9.9% TNA ” said Persichini of economist Nery GMA Capital.
In September, the Central Bank raised the market reference rate to 75% as inflation dropped from 7% in August to 7.4% in July. And it has been maintained at that level ever since. Despite the decline in the consumer price index on Thursday, which fell by 1.4 percentage points compared to October, the Central decided to keep the rate at the same level.
“The monetary authority believes that keeping the key rate unchanged would contribute to consolidate financial and currency stability and strengthen the trend towards the gradual deceleration of inflation in the medium term,” the Central reported in a statement.
However, Persichini warns that “so far in 2022, the peso rate lost directly 9.7% in real terms”.
The positive result of the November fixed terms seems to be isolated. “The market expects a 6.3% change in the consumer price index for December. This annualized figure would be slightly above the fixed terms rate for individuals (TNA 75%), but much higher than the BADLAR (69 .5%), where the placements of companies are”, Persichini points out.
investment options
“Faced with the challenges that the economy has in the short term, for those who must continue in the ‘Mundo Pesos’ it might be more interesting to continue weighting indexed instruments. The key is that they offer a positive real rate and also a hedge in scenarios with negative inflation surprises. In addition to the fixed UVA terms, the short LECERs, with IRRs between 4% and 5%, are variants to be followed closely”, recommends Persichini.
The advice of Massimiliano Donzelli, Head of Research of IOL Invertironline, for those who want to invest in the short term – less than six months – is to turn to the TX23 bond, expiring on 23 March 2023 and yield on the CER+ 5.0% date “In particular the expected yield on this bond is 128%, so it would also outpace inflation“, Donzelli brand.
For investors looking to position themselves in pesos over the medium term, Invertironline’s suggestion is to add the double bonus (pays inflation or depreciation, whichever is greater), TDJ23 with a June 2023 maturity and an Expected Annual Return (IRR) of 127%.
“Third, we believe it would be ideal to add national government bond TX26 to the portfolio which adjusts its principal to the CER, thus managing to keep pace with inflation. This 2026-maturity bond has an IRR on the date of CER+ 16%,” says Donzelli.
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Source: Clarin
