After the 4.9% rise recorded by inflation in November, many are wondering if the slowdown in prices will repeat itself in the weeks of December as well. For now, the analysts’ calculations reveal it in the last month of the year, inflationary inertia will remain above 5%. Likewise, they rule out annual inflation reaching triple digits as expected.
December happens to be, in general, a seasonally high month in terms of prices and beyond the impact of official programs (such as Fair Prices) which performed well in November, other increases expected for this month are bound to boost the price indicator. For example inside schools (14.5%), prepaid medicine (6.9%), telephony (9.8%) and fuel (4%), among others.
To this list will be added the increases in some regulated prices such as electricity (approximately 14.7%), gas (approximately 13%), buses and trains (40%). “Taking into account these increases and the influence of seasonal behaviors, We expect a new acceleration in December”warns consultancy firm LCG.
For these same reasons, “surely the November issue will not be repeated in December”, according to Elisabeth Bacigalupo, head of macroeconomics at the Abeceb consultancy firm. His vision is that the increase will be more than 5%.
The food sector, which in November recorded the lowest increase in 11 months with an increase of 3.5%, resumed an upward path in recent weeks, according to private surveys For example, for LCG, they saw an increase of 3.4% on average over the past four weeks and 3.8% in end-to-end measurement.
The monitoring of the consultancy Orlando Ferreres & Asociados has also recorded acceleration: food grew an average of 3.2% during the first week of December compared to the average of the last 4 weeks of November.
Thus, with the largest increases concentrated in education and leisure, preliminary inflation data for December (average for the first week of the month versus the five-week average the previous month) is 5.7% monthly, while the core measurement is 4.9%.
“Furthermore, the average measurement for the first week of the month compared to the first week of November was 8.2% per month. Meanwhile, the overall inflation for the first week of the month was 2.9%, while the average core recorded a progress of 1.8%”, specify the information processed by the economist of that consulting firm Fausto Spotorno.
According to Sebastián Menescaldi, EcoGo economist, “probably November data is a low for inflation in the coming months. Today we are seeing inflation around 5% for December,” contacted. With which, the interannual variation would be around 95.2%.
In turn, Juan Pablo Ronderos, director of the economic consultancy MAP, lowered his forecast for December by more than 6% to 5.4%” as a result of food. But structurally it’s a 6% economy,” she explained.
Meanwhile, Eliana Scialabba, executive director of the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI commented: “Despite the eye-catching data for November, we continue to bring our estimates for December into 6.4%, which would give us 97.2% for all of 2022″.
Also for LCG,”the December value is intended as a floor for the following yearAnd he suggests taking the November data “with caution”. Because “it must be taken into account that there are still relative prices that need to be corrected and this will make it more difficult to deal with the price slowdown,” she cautioned. in his latest report.
More optimistic, consultancy ACM said that “if December keeps the same tune as November, produces some optimism for next year”he pointed.
Source: Clarin
