It takes a lot of effort and large doses of boldness, to convince the population that with 4.9% in November we are entering “a process of lowering inflation and relative calm”. And to affirm, moreover, that “all of us who go to the supermarket notice it”.
Words of the presidential spokeswoman Gabriela Cerruti, equal or similar to those that we have often heard from the mouths of the most diverse officials of the most diverse governments. Stories consumed by use e proved uselessin the country of inflation again at the top of 100%.
With the advantage of settling in the 4% area, even scraping, the November result surprised many of the analysts who estimated a long 5%, close to 6%. Positioned on a broader level and similar to the brands of recent years, the annualized 4.9% sings the 77% and recommends focusing on a classic: don’t claim victory ahead of time.
INDEC data taken from that vintage show that since the beginning of 2020, i.e. since the current version of Kirchnerism landed in the Casa Rosada, the general price index has risen on average by 277% and the cost of food directly rounded by 300%.
Impressive collection of realities, since we are dealing precisely with indicators that in some ways sanction an economic and social horizon that is certainly compromised for huge sections of the population. And in the same act they express the failure of long and repeated series of controls which have been relentlessly rehearsed.
The reports of consultants who have spent years exhausting analyzes of the real economy speak of these things and not of goldfish.
One of them, from the Eco Go study, states that, compared to 2015, the real wages of registered workers, of those who have access to equality and have social and employment coverage, accumulate a drop of more than 20%.
That is, in that world of some 8.4 or 9 million private and state employees protected by statute, revenues have lost more than a fifth of their purchasing power instead of improving it at least minimally.
Predictably, the wage drop has risen to a real 35% among informal workers, where job stability and basic coverage are scarce and accepted values as they come in exchange for having a job.
In other words, some 8 million let’s say unprotected workers were left without a third of their income; Nothing more and nothing less.
Almost halfway between formal and informal, this is how the universe of 20 million employed people that exists in Argentina is made up or broken down. With an aggregate of a similar type: the multiplication of social plans, in a space where formal, firm work rarely comes, and where the salary is called a $28,950 handout.
What follows is much the same. Simply because the structure of the work, as it is and as it is approached, does not admit very different things.
And the following is about how deteriorating real wages and poor quality new jobs are driving rising levels of poverty, on both sides of the labor front. The data now comes from a report by the Fundación Capital directed by Martín Redrado.
one says it of the 8.4 million workers which according to their number fall into the category of formallet’s say okay, almost 18% are poor. The 2017 record stood at 11.2%, and, to put it somewhat, about seven percentage points less worse than now.
Among the 4.9 million informal wage earners or undeclared workers, the Fundación Capital data reveal 2.2 million people who live in poverty or, directly, in indigence. That is, 45% or a total of 63% if we add the 18 that come from regular work.
Several numbers added to this tangle of uninspiring numbers obviously advance in the description of the complete panorama.
According to INDEC, the cost of the Total Basic Basket (CTA) which defines the poverty line today amounts to $139,737 for a family Like, a couple with two small children. Those who do not reach this figure will be considered poor.
The line of poverty passes through a Basic Food Basket (CAB) the cost of which, again in the case of a typical family, reaches 62,106 dollars.
Well, from this table where nothing is out of place, the cost of the total basket has increased by 93% in the last twelve months and by 83.5% between January and October 2022. And that of the food basket has doubled in a round case and is up 88. 4% in the other.
And so that nothing is missing, we now have the case of about 2.8 million retirees who receive the minimum of $60,124, i.e. according to the cost per adult of the total basket for each they have about $15,000 left over to avoid being poor.
No consolation prize, but in the end pure defeat according to Nadin Argañaraz’s calculations. A widely circulated study by the Córdoba tax official concludes that, by applying inflation-decoupled models, Since December 2017, retirees have accumulated a minimum loss in their assets of $454,000 million.
So far in 2022, he says, the hole totals $94 billion. Fiscal adjustment across the board, applied to a sector with very little resilience, Argañaraz estimates that since December 2017 the state has saved you about 6.3 trillion pesos. Or held 6.3 billion retirees.
It is clear, everywhere you look, what is known: that inflation is an income-crushing machine and, above all, the income of those occupying the lowest rungs of the social pyramid. Unequal distribution is the name given to a phenomenon that not only generates unequal economic growth, but also ultimately hinders the growth of the economy itself.
Specialists predict for 2023 employment growth below population growth, decline in economic activity, inflation at levels similar to current ones, uncertainty and distrust. Y recommend a comprehensive stabilization and growth plan solid enough to give, in a short time, a good number of perceptible results. This is a miracle.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank is already explaining why it has not touched the interest rate which serves as a reference for the entire market, despite the drop in the price index. He said that in this way “it will help consolidate financial and currency stability and reinforce the trend of gradual deceleration of inflation in the medium term”.
If the issue goes through financial stability and exchange rates, what we actually have is quite unstable stability. And talking about a slowdown in inflation in the medium term is equivalent to not taking or taking risks and setting the goal by 2023.
Finale of the Cerruti spokesman, with a phrase from mid-August: “There is a feeling of stabilization on many issues. The loss of salary that occurred during the four years of Macrismo, by almost 14 points, is being traced.
Drawer question: On which planet does Cerruti live? And pertinent clarification: Cerruti writes his own screenplays.
Source: Clarin
