Contrary to private estimates, the Government is more optimistic about the wheat crop which has suffered the harsh elements of drought and late frosts.
Thus, with an area updated downwards to 5.9 million hectares, according to the latest official report projects a volume of 13.3 million tons100,000 tons less than a month ago and 39% less than last season.
In any case, the official estimate is higher than the private one: 2 million tons more than expected by the Rosario Stock Exchange (11.3 million tons) and 900,000 tons more than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (12.4 million tons).
To date, according to the work of the Secretary of Agriculture, 81% of the viable land nationwide has been harvestedl against 80% of the previous cycle.
The harvest ended in the NOA and in the Chaco, with very low yields, around 10 qq/ha, being the areas most affected by the drought. In the provinces of Córdoba and Santa Fe it is practically finished, reaching respectively average yield values of 18.8 and 23.2 qq/ha.
In the province of Buenos Aires, sowing progress is 66% and the yields obtained are highly variable, estimating an average of 26.8 qq/ha.
“The wheat estimate for the 2022/23 cycle will reach 14.9 million tonswhich guarantees both domestic supply and the exportable balance so that private companies meet their commitments,” the Agriculture Minister posted on his social network, Juan José Bahillowhich added the initial stock (1.7 million tons) to the estimated harvest (13.3 million tons).
“I appreciate the producers’ huge effort to reach a grain volume that is average for the last decade, despite suffering one of the most severe droughts in history,” the official added.
The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, celebrated the news announced by Bahillo. “Great news for Argentines: the wheat harvest report leaves us with much better expectations than expected for 2023. Despite the drought and unfavorable conditions, we greatly appreciate the effort of the producers,” the report published The minister in his social network.
According to the official work, the volume destined for export will drop to only 4.75 million tonsalmost 10 million tons less than in the previous cycle, which means a decrease of 68%.
Faced with this situation, from the Rosario Stock Exchange They’re already saying grain shipments will be the lowest in 8 years.
Even barley has suffered the consequences of time. Continuing with the report of the agricultural portfolio, as of 22/12 the harvest recorded an advance of 71% compared to 69% in the previous campaign.
It was finished in the provinces of Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero, obtaining very low yields due to the lack of water that affected the crop throughout its cycle. The averages are respectively 17.6 and 11.3 qq/ha.
In the provinces of Córdoba and Entre Ríos only a few lots remain to be built in the southern area.
In Buenos Aires, the main producing province, the progress of the harvest is 70%. It has finished or is about to finish in the northern region, leaving the largest number of lots to be raised in the central-southern area.
Therefore, with a national average yield of about 29.3 qq/ha, the production of grain barley reaches 4.70 million tons, down 10% compared to the previous season.
Source: Clarin
