Five rounds before the end of the year, the government is enthusiastic about the evolution of the soybean dollar 2 programme, which, although it has followed a more uneven path than its first version, $3,000 million in liquidation would be earmarked. However, they are suspicious of the reaction in the parallel market where the blue skyrocketed on Friday and behind it are the financial dollars.
having closed at $340 on Friday, a weekly gain of over $16, blue became the most expensive “free” price and it puts pressure on both cash with the liquidation and the euro deputy dollar, which rose less in the last week, contained according to operators due to “extravagant interventions” on the ends of the wheels.
Until now the export sector settled close to US$2.4 billion in the official market thanks to the incentive of a higher dollar. The data match CIARA CEC, which at the end of the weekend reported that revenue from the grain-oil complex reached $3,654 million. In this way, the liquidation of the soybean dollar it is 60% less than the previous edition.
To reach $3,000 million in soybean export revenue alone, these last five rounds before the end of the year, liquid agriculture averages at least $120 million a day. The dynamics of the parallel market can serve as a thermometer to see if this goal will be achieved.
The central bank is finding it more difficult to capitalize this extra income for its international reserves. Last week the monetary authority acquired $177 million, when the previous week it had been able to buy 362 million dollars. In this way, he accumulates purchases of US$ 900 million in the second edition of the Program.
Ecolatina economists pointed out: “The dynamics suggest that the highest (net) sales were made to remainder of demand (“other private demand”), which rose from just over $110 million last week to nearly $400 million. million dollars. this week”. At the same time they warned: “Since the inception of the “soy 2.0″ dollar the BCRA has acquired 51% of the total liquidated, well below the 65% of the first edition.”
Despite increased tension in the parallel market and persistent demand in the official segment, Central held its ground policy of slowing down the daily rate of devaluation, something that had begun to become clear since the INDEC inflation data for November became known, which showed a slowdown in prices.
Between Monday and last Friday, the agency allowed the wholesale exchange rate to run at a Effective monthly rate of 5.3%, so that it closed around $174.80 on Friday. The gap could widen: the government does not seem willing to move its plan, while the financial dollars press through the roof.
The distance between the wholesaler and the blue it’s over 90% again. and in the City they believe there is reason to expect it to get even higher during the summer months.
Specifically, in December there are several seasonal factors that drive the leap of the parallel dollar: the demand for dollarisation by some savers, especially after the payment of bonuses and the demand for tourism, which has increased since the introduction of the Qatari dollar. To these is added the political noise of the last week.
Several operators underlined that it was precisely the renewed and strong official interventions on the bond market that made it possible to keep both the stock market dollar, or MEP, and the regulated spot dollar “at bay”. Both prices have risen so far this month behind the wholesale dollar and blue update.
The consensus is that, without the participation of official organizations, their prices would be well above the marks recorded last Friday.
Source: Clarin
