Earlier this week, only agro-exporters were liquidated US$38 million, for a total of US$2,431 million since November 28, when the second edition of the soy dollar started.
Just four days after this program ended, which allows them to liquidate their currencies to one dollar’s $230 instead of the wholesale exchange rate of $174, the odds of what actually entering the system reaching the $3 trillion pledged are complicated.
Of everything the soy dollar has contributed so far, the Central Bank has retained 51%. This Monday bought 23 million dollarswhich extends the count to $1.26 billion since the beginning of this scheme.
To reach the $3 billion pledged, soybeans would have to settle for an average of $150 million a day from now to Friday, a day that promises to be complicated due to the administrative holiday that will make the market work halfway.
Industry sources say so drought conspired against the soybean dollar: Given the prospects that next year’s crop will be lower than expected, producers are preferring to keep their old soybeans, hoping to get better prices in 2023.
Despite everything, the Ministry of the Economy is satisfied with the results they are achieving with the soybean dollar and which allow them to strengthen the net reserves of the Central Bank and thus meet one of the objectives established in the agreement with the Monetary Fund. Today’s net reserves are at $3.6 billion according to LCG consultancy.
“The commitment for 2023 is to add another $4 billion. It will be a new challenge as we expect lower exports than this year impacted by falling prices and drought, plus net IMF payments of $1.8bn,” says LCG
Moving forward, uncertainty is gaining traction. Calculations by economists warn of this growth in 2023 will be practically nil.
The forecast of the consulting firm Abeceb is that in 2023 “the prospects will not improve in any of its variables: the economy will hardly grow (1%), consumption will accompany this dynamic (1.7%) and inflation will remain very high , at 85.5%”.
According to this consultant, “drought, severe restrictions on imports, the slowdown in growth, the reduction in income and, therefore, in consumption, are the direct factors that explain loss of momentum in the real economy“.
Abeceb points out that the six sectors that grew the most this year were automotive production with 24.8%, mining exports with 18%, agrochemical production with 13.8%, agricultural exports with 13 %, production for domestic use with 12.5% and oil with 11.5%.
“While some of these sectors will continue to be leaders, their performance will no longer be as strong in 2023.” For example, they argue that the increase in car production will be only 8.3%.
Abeceb’s estimates prove it Due to drought, agricultural production will decrease by 11% and in wheat milling there will be a sharp contraction of 16.4%.
LCG’s base case forecasts total goods exports of US$87,000 million in 2023, which implies a drop of 3.6% from this year.
“This contraction is due to an adjustment in the exported quantities of products affected by the drought (mainly wheat), but above all a downward adjustment in international prices which is starting to affect the future contracts of the main exported commodities”. Due to the impact of the abundant harvest alone, $2.2 billion less exports are expected than this year.
Despite the lower income dollars LCG rules out a discrete jump in the official exchange rate. Instead, “new versions of the soy dollar can be expected, encouraging temporary liquidations in this sector or another.”
In this way, they anticipate that exchange controls will remain in place in all their versions (stocks, Qatari dollar, etc.).
However, lower energy demand due to the price effect or the completion of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline will work in their favor. “A drop in prices to levels comparable to pre-war levels will save $3 billion.”
“One element that will help ease the demand for foreign exchange is that crude oil production in 2023 will grow by 13% thanks to higher exports and high productivity of Vaca Muerta,” says Abeceb.
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Source: Clarin
