So far in December, the blue dollar is up 43 pesos, a third of the jump it has made throughout the year. The informal ticket $356 adds a touch to inflation, which last month with 4.9% marked the lowest level since last February.
Economists point out that if the jump in the blue were to be sustained, it could impact prices and send the index to a rebound, becoming the benchmark price for imported products amid stocks.
For Nery Persichini, of GMA Capital, “If the parallel dollar rally continues, inflation will be unlikely to slow down as it slowed in November. December already tends to have a little more seasonal pressure on prices and exchange rate volatility would not help inflation slow again.”
“This increase could affect prices as usual in months after a nominally sharp jump in finance and blue. Likewise, there is a regulated price component that will certainly continue to influence upcoming CPI data, such as November, which outpaced core inflation,” says Juan Pablo Albornoz, economist at Invecq.
For Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, “in economies with high inflation, the price system is destroyed. As a result, The exchange rate becomes the fundamental variable followed by companies and workers be able to adjust their prices.
“In Argentina the situation is even more complex because the official exchange rate was reserved for fewer and fewer commodities, leaving dollars unregulated as the benchmark for much of the economy. A leap in the latter not only has a direct impact on these markets, but also those that use the official dollar, as it affects future expectations of the value of the currency,” says Marí.
“Many companies end up importing at that value or benchmark it for replacement cost.. The more imports are closed, the more this change becomes a reference”, adds Guido Lorenzo, director of the consultancy firm Lcg.
“The blue jump will generate a big problem for the government because It will widen the gap and generate problems for exports in the future”, says the economist Salvador Di Stéfano. “My hunch is that it will cause a generalized price increase in the economy. Imports are closed and importers will start valuing them at blue. This will have its correlate in inflation. interest rate speculation in pesos, because while they play interest rate speculation in pesos they have large losses in dollars”.
Martín Vauthier, director of the consulting firm Anker, qualifies the impact on prices. “The blue and financial dollars had appreciated strongly and we had reached December with the highest appreciation levels in real terms of the current administration. This latest nominal increase partially offsets this real appreciation.”
“We are seeing a slowdown in inflation essentially due to a sluggish level of activity. There is less room to pull and take as the peso costs increase. Demand is less and real wages have been hit. The fiscal adjustment also has an impact on demand. And today the impact on inflation is coming more from these lanes, which impact more of this movement of alternative dollars which is barely offsetting the appreciation that had occurred as of late.”
“This rally doesn’t seem to have much impact. If blue goes to $400 it’s a kick out there if it’s going to hit. It’s up 12 or 13% for the month and inflation is calm. It gives us 5.5% in December, but it could be less”, summarizes Fernando Marull, director of FMyA.
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Source: Clarin
