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Inflation, the dollar and rates: what are the Central Bank’s plans to manage these three key variables in 2023

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The Central Bank announced this Thursday its “Objectives and Plans” for 2023 in which you bet on a gradual reduction of inflation, with positive real interest rates and an exchange rate policy aimed at strengthening reserves and maintaining competitiveness abroad.

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In a statement, the body chaired by Miguel Pesce set the main guidelines for next year. As for his monetary policy he said he will try “manage liquidity avoid imbalances that directly or indirectly threaten the disinflation process” and which in this sense will seek”Set the interest rate path of monetary policy in order to support positive real returns on local currency investments”.

Twelve months ago, Central anticipated in its route sheet that it would raise rates to give higher-than-inflation returns and let the dollar run at the same rate as rising prices in the economy. Now, in the field of exchanges, the BCRA intends to do so “preserve levels of external competitiveness” and “strengthen international reserves”.

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About exchange shares, the agency did not clarify whether it would continue to add restrictions or ease access to the dollars. He simply stated that he will try: “manage exchange regulations prudently to adapt them to the needs of the situation, favoring monetary and exchange rate stability”.

In an election year, the organization anticipated that it will seek to “stimulate greater financial intermediation aimed at meeting financing needs for consumer development, productive investment and technological change.” In a context of declining bank lending, the Central will bet in 2023 to “promote the growth of credit to the private sector in pesos in terms of GDP”.

The monetary authority has announced that it will accompany “the development of technological innovations in the financial system in such a way as to integrate the application of technology and the emergence of new financial service providers in a prudential framework of protection, transparency and security for users . “

Regarding possible regulations for digital finance and cryptocurrencies, the Central Bank announced that it will continue to “monitor the evolution and implications of cryptocurrencies for financial institutions and digital wallets, developing tools to collect information and alert users of financial services and investors on their risks”.

Source: Clarin

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