With inflation flirting in the triple digits in 2023 and facing the challenges of an election year, choosing what to invest in for the next twelve months and harnessing the power of savings may not be entirely easy. In dollars and pesos, several analysts consulted by clarion they gave their vision to put together to balanced portfolio which is protected of a potential jump in the exchange rate and rising prices.
brian grillsCorporate Finance Manager of PGK consultantshe explained that the government continues to try to give signals inviting to interpret the “improbability” of a leap in devaluation, combined with a campaign (“with less or more effectiveness”) to reduce the inflation rate.
In this context, the specialist recommended: “For those savers who wish to invest their pesos, fixed-rate assets such as Fixed term o Discount effects (You give) of the Treasury can be interesting, betting on rates in the order of 80% per annum“.
In this sense, he highlighted the universe of inflation-linked assets, such as for example UVA fixed terms or the Obligations linked to the CER: “It would be appropriate to spread the positions between traditional fixed yield and inflation-linked yield alternatives, trying to mitigate the risk of an inflationary explosion, for example with an initial distribution 60% fixed and 40% inflation and then go rotating in favor of one or the other”.
For his part, Yacht Lukefrom Capital Harehe underlined: “We recommend maintaining prudence in a context in which challenging months are ahead for the Government in terms of debt refinancing and low supply of dollars. Therefore, we recommend increasing diversification between corporate and sovereign assets hand in hand with a reduction of the duration of wallets”.
Interesting options appear on the stock exchange after the rally that companies listed on the Merval have had this year. “After a very encouraging 2022 for the local market, we believe there are a number of factors that make us think that 2023 it will also be a good year for equities from Argentina,” he said Maximilian DonzelliResearch Manager at Invest online.
“A large number of Argentine companies, especially in the energy sector, already have strong fundamentals and strong results, including companies such as Central Puerto (CEPU), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGSU2), Pampa Energía (PAMP) and YPF (YPFD)especially the last two“, he stressed.
Something similar happens with dollar bonds: Argentine debt will close in the red this 2022, later a strong rebound from underground during the last two months.
“In 2023 (dollar bonds) are eligible for a trade election, in the event that polls indicate that the opposition will clearly win over the ruling party, as well as if uncertainty continues in the peso bond market,” he said. Ignatius Moralesfinancial affairs analyst Wise capital.
Morales clarified that dollar sovereign bonds are “only as a short-term opportunity and for investors who love the risk. It is not an asset to have in your portfolio think in the medium and long term”.
Having made the clarification, he added: “I am better placed that the Cedears follow the evolution of the CCL given that there are not sufficient elements to confirm that Wall Street will rise in the coming months; while for dollar bonds they have parity in favour at predefined prices Y high implied returns.
Source: Clarin
