Inflation in 2022 was 95.5% according to the Central Bank’s survey of market expectations. And the projection for 2023 is that it will reach 98.4%. This puts it 1.3% below the December estimate, while remaining at the three-digit limit.
“It is the first time in nine months that the interannual inflation rate forecast by analysts for December of any year has declined,” the Central said. According to analysts participating in this survey, the inflation expectation is 75% for 2024 and 51% for 2025.
Market analysts have forecast a 5.5% monthly change for December 2022, “implying an implied expected change of 94.4% year-on-year over the course of 2022,” they indicate. This is a 2.6% drop from the previous survey’s forecast.
“Those who predicted short-term inflation best (defined as the top 10 by the Centrale) expect inflation of 5.2% for December 2022, leaving an implied expected change of 90.5% for 2022, i.e. 3 6% lower than the November survey,” the monetary entity reported.
Perhaps as a result of the controls set in programs such as “Fair Prices”, participants in this survey see core inflation for 2023 at 94.7%, down 4.4% from November’s estimate.
Next Thursday, INDEC will announce the December CPI and therefore the inflation for 2022. 2022 ended with the highest inflation in the last 32 years. The slowdown in recent months prevented the 100% barrier from being exceeded, but the final figure was at the limit of that figure: according to private estimates it marked 95% and exceeded the 83% of 1991, the year of launch. Convertibility.
In November, the average analysts participating in these measurements estimated monthly inflation at 6.1%. The final number reported by INDEC was 4.9%, ie 1.2% below what was expected. “Analysts have revised their projections downwards from December 2022 to May 2023 compared to the previous survey,” notes the Bcra.
Survey participants believe the official dollar (nominal exchange rate) will reach $328 by December 2023. The best forecasters predicted it will reach $327. Either way, the projected year-over-year devaluation would be 89%.
GDP growth in 2023 would be 0.5% for analysts, a drop of 0.3% from the previous measurement. The “top ten” of the most correct ones suggest a growth of 0.8%.
Unemployment would be at 7.5% of the economically active population by the fourth quarter. That prediction is 7.7% for “top ten” members.
The public sector’s nominal primary fiscal deficit remained roughly unchanged, being estimated at $3.827 billion for the average of REM participants. Analysts estimate that the deficit will fall to $3.1 billion by 2024. “The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable project a deficit of $3.19 billion by 2023.”
Source: Clarin
