While the government is enthusiastic about the December inflation data that INDEC will announce this Thursday, which according to what Economy Minister Sergio Massa anticipated, would be less than 5%savers recalibrate their bets to decide what to do with their peso placings.
If the official thesis is confirmed and inflation starts to fall, reaching the 3% monthly promised by Sergio Massa for March, Are UVA fixed terms still interesting? Until mid-2022, according to the price increase in the economy, the UVA fixed conditions were gaining appeal among savers, but since the Central Bank decided tighten rates, they have lost luster.
In December, according to the latest Central Monetary Report prepared by the agency, the stock of fixed terms linked to inflation fell in real terms for the fifth consecutive month. “On this occasion, the decrease was verified both in traditional UVA placements and in pre-cancellable ones, whose monthly variation rates stood respectively at -9.5% and -1.6% at constant prices”, indicates the report .
All in all, the stock of fixed-term UVA reached at the end of last December the $325.7 billion, just 4.4% of total fixed terms in pesos. And they have become the second option more profitable of 2022, surpassed only by the performance of Merval stock, which rose 130% last year.
Although inflation has begun to backtrack, the City does not welcome the Central Bank’s haste to lower the Leliq rate, which was set at 75% per annum until this Tuesday. Furthermore, they expect Miguel Pesce to be cautious when it comes to easing his monetary policy. And this gives traditional fixed conditions more leeway than the potential of inflation-linked ones.
Adcap Grupo Financiero analysts pointed out: “The problem with lowering the rate is the exchange rate gap. It is not devaluation or inflation. Perhaps the BCRA will wait until the second quarter, when demand for money eases, to lower rates. We believe this is not the time to lower the rate.”
Economist Diego Martínez Burzaco, from Inviu, said: “In the very short term, we prefer anything that is a fixed rate over the CER. We are seeing a marginal deceleration in inflation. However, an important issue occurred in December currency, product of the soybean 2 dollar and the Central Bank intervention in the bond market, and we believe that this will increase inflation starting in February, March and April”
In this direction, Martínez Burzaco’s strategy is: “Until February, give priority to fixed-rate investments over investments linked to the CER. In an ideal portfolio of only fixed maturities, I would dedicate 70% of a portfolio to traditional fixed maturities and only 30% to those linked to UVA And would reverse that proportion starting in March, where we see inflation overheating”.
For his part, Nery Persichini, of GMA Capital, explained: “The fixed-rate variants have an upside in case inflation slows down and the BCRA cuts the benchmark interest rates. Instead, theIndexed alternatives respond best in scenarios of accelerating inflation and delay in the monetary policy reaction”.
We will have to wait for the Central Bank’s decision in next Thursday’s weekly council to have more elements to guide the investments of savers who prefer to stay in pesos.
Source: Clarin
