With wages set to inflation this year, households already overfunded (from Now programs), spending on services and transportation rising, and prices of baskets (like food) continuing to rise, consumption this year will grow by just 1.7%, far from the 8.5% luck it showed in 2022according to ABECEB estimates.
This slowdown is part of two years that will be very different for the Argentine economy: in 2022 the GDP will close with a growth of 5.5% driven by a better first half with a slowdown in activity starting from the second; while 2023 carries little inertia and could end up in just one spot.
Consumption has two key factors: the purchasing power of wages and financing options. In this framework, the real salary in 2022 has not lost what was expected against inflation due to the opening of parities and permanent negotiations. It closed the year at -0.4% for registered private workers, which partly explains the support of mass consumption and semi-durable goods.
For his part, the extension of the Hour 12, 18, 30 and all its variants, encouraged the consumer electronics and home appliances as a safeguard of value, but, above all, as a alternative to place excess weights in a scenario of relative price distortion and high inflation.
For this reason, 2022 closed with a positive balance, driven by higher consumption in the first half of the year with signs of a slowdown that began to appear starting from July.
Supermarket sales increased by just 1% in real terms compared to 2021pressed by the lower purchasing power of consumers which has led more families to cut costs, opting for second brands and organizing monthly purchases to earn a few pesos from inflation.
More than 50% of the population has decreased purchases of basic necessities in the food and beverage category, which would close the year with a production close to 4.1%. A slowdown in overall production within the sector to 3.9% is forecast for 2023.
As for the 0 km vehicle market, it closed 2022 with over 407 thousand units sold -6.7% compared to 2021-, with a record participation of 55.7% of national vehicles. Motorcycle sales also grew 6%. In both cases similar behavior is expected.
Source: Clarin
