There are few tools economic adjustment more powerful than inflation, especially when prices are skyrocketing like they’ve been here for years. This is known and recontra knows but it should also be clear that the way the burden is distributed is not necessarily automatic or linear but, in more than one sense, a function of official policies.
Against the backdrop of an index that rose to impressive heights last year 94.8%data from the Congressional Budget Office highlight some sides of the question Kirchnerist adjustment model. They are data from January-November 2022 against January-November 2021 and the fact that December is missing changes little or nothing in substance.
All time public spendingwe have there a 72% increase in the total resources that the government has allocated retirement and pensions, including 5 extraordinary bonuses that have mended the minimum wages. Sounds like a lot, but even with everything incorporated the result says 23 percentage points less than inflation or, if you prefer, a new, large loss of income in an industry that continues to lose income.
Follow the AUH, the basic and commended child benefit. There is a comparison between the increase in money that went to cover the basic needs of poor families and the cost of living sing 51% vs 94.8%, that is, to sing a service of almost 44 points. Little improves with a few more opportunities.
Another example in this series is the case of call funds food policies, that is the best known Food Card. Result, inflation wins this time by 34 points.
Now the public investment, the engine that should support the frenetic but usually improvised advertising campaign of Alberto Fernández. Put in silver, which is how the size and true effects of the presidential operation should be measured, the balance sheet itself gives almost nothing or, more clearly, throws at macaneo
That classic of settings also called capital expenditures grows at a very modest nominal 14% and, net of sarasa, drops no less than a real 32.9%. We are talking about projects banked by the nation and, as has been demonstrated, also of moves similar to inaugural commercials.
There is however one monumental exception to the rule. Read More Improve the workthan between January and November 2022 increased by 121%that is, 30% real or 26 percentage points above inflation.
The nearly sold-out $402 billion game and the start of election time anticipate the arrival of a good flow of money and, probably, the end of the investigations into the use of the plans in financial transactions and the political hype they make.
It is all too evident, whichever way you look at it, the effort that some officials have made sell a pig in a poke and pretending, moreover, that people buy. Obvious, spent and also full of prejudices.
On the same day that INDEC reported on November’s 4.9%, the presidential spokeswoman, Gabriela Cerruti, sang triumphantly that we had entered “a process of lowering inflation and relative calm”. And she concluded with “we all notice it when we go to the supermarket”.
Of course, then we went from 6.3% in October, 6.2% in September and 7% in August. And even if it was all the sheer harvest of the Kirchnerist administration, the spokesperson assumed we were behind us from the 5% era and it has slipped badly. He has just discovered that inflation has not fallen but has risen from 4.9 to 5.1%, but the script does not change.
The INDEC sheets also speak of a very poor start of price controls with a 4% ceiling. A sample of 60 prices reveals that 38 of them, or more than half, rose above or well over 4% in December.
Nothing luxurious or sumptuous, there is everything from bread, flour, roasts, milk and oil, to soft drinks, beer, coffee, deodorants and disposable nappies.
on the floor Fair prices They also talk about the scarcity of tags on the gondolas and a clarification from INDEC on the extent of the regime. He says it represents just 2.88 percent of the agency’s total of 320,000 prices surveyed and shows that, in some months, that percentage has fallen short of even a quarter of the already modest share that was allocated to Care Prices.
Going back to misleading history or sheer deception, we now have Sergio Massa being promoted as a success that he “met his target” on inflation in 2022 it will not reach three digits that “consultants and the media” predicted.
The only thing missing is that 94.8% is defined as a feat, that 32 years are said to be nothing, that is, the time elapsed until the 1990 record was surpassed, and that Macri’s legacy is to blame.
For now, 94.8% of Argentina is 16 times higher than Brazil’s 5.9% annual rate in the same 2022; it is 12 times higher than the Paraguayan index and 7 times that of Colombia. And if it’s not clear where we are, the world inflation ranking puts us fourth behind Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Lebanon.
It is difficult to find a relationship between this panorama and Cerruti’s speech in the sense that “we are at the foundations of a great moment in Argentina” and before a “government epic that people will recognize”. This is understood, finding a relationship that is not one of those found in Cerruti’s head.
It is taken for granted, even if it remains to be demonstrated that it is definitely true, that Massa’s appointment in Economics has stopped a train that seemed to be heading straight to the precipice. It is true that the enthronement took place in the midst of a furious offensive by Cristina Kirchner against Martín Guzmán who, in fact, sponsored and caused the outcome.
Says an economist familiar with some details of the K-scene: “It gives the feeling that it could have been worse or much worse. But how are we really?
In his list he includes the always lively clashes at the top of the Government, or Cristina against Alberto or Cristina marking the field for Alberto.
Add, moreover, “very high” inflation which continues to devour incomes, especially those of those with little income and precarious work; plus actions, imports of the yes-and-no type, the recurring pressures of the dollar born of uncertainty and distrust and the technique of kicking problems forward.
By the way, the blue just hit 369 pesos, an all-time record that is $129 or 54% more than the then-record price of 239, which the old parallel had with Guzmán’s fall. The exchange rate gap is in the 100% area, issuance runs unchecked and the Central Bank continues, as always, with low reserves.
Also, something that was missing is no longer missing. Bluntly, official statistics state that the economic rebound is beginning to weaken: the EMAE, an indicator that anticipates GDP, turned red in September and October; construction has taken on that color in the last four months and industry since July.
Yes, the epic of words and the very assumed assumption that history can change the face of reality remains firm. But if in the hands of Kirchnerism that has never been sufficient capital or capital to replace the weight of management, much less now, after three years in power and not exactly three glorious years.
Source: Clarin
