The foreign exchange scenario opened the year with a overheating of the dollar blue which was not quite accompanied by the so-called alternative dollars which are legally traded in the financial market. The numbers speak of a climb 7% for blue in the first two weeks of the year, closely followed by cash on hand (+1.8%) and the dollar stock market (3.7%).
Every time the dollar lands on the front pages of the newspapers, on the baseboards of the television news or on the radio news, the nervousness grows. The government knows that, of course. And in the market they become more careful.
Although, with more elements to evaluate the financial scenario, market analysts usually have another perspective. clarion consulted three of them, who literally have their screens of quotes here and abroad in front of their eyes all day, to consult them what can you expect for the blessed dollar from here on out.
To clarify intrigues: agree on the exchange rates possibly keep going upbut the price of dollars will accompany, perhaps a little above, perhaps below, athe rest of the prices of the economy.
It should not be forgotten that the price of the dollar has fallen quite behind the inflation recorded in 2022. It cannot be ruled out that the same thing will happen this year. Although of course you never know.
TO Leonardo Chiavaby the consultant Delphos Investments, it is inevitable to watch What’s happening in the world to deduce later what can happen in Argentina, financially speaking. His view is that a rise in the dollar would not be unreasonable as a counterpart to the drop in demand for pesos which occurs, as always, at this time of year. “But the dollar’s rise will be in line with the rest of the prices in the economy. I don’t think we will see a bullfight if the global context continues as it is today, which is quite favourable”.
In his view, global conditions have improved since October/November when the Federal reserve he gave signs of being able to give way, a bit, with the harshness of his monetary policy, given that inflation in the US seemed to be easing, as was confirmed in the following months”. Chialva says: “The change was automatic. Since the strong devaluation we had seen of the Euro, the Yen and the Chinese currency was reversedAlong with this, the prices of raw materials have increased and Latin America has breathed a sigh of relief”.
Going to Argentina, Chialva underlines this it’s not that easy for companies to become dollarized. “They are full of pesos, but they cannot buy cash with cash or bonds negotiable in dollars under foreign law because the Central penalizes them by separating them from the official currency market”. This means that they stay in pesos, betting on the positive interest rates that the Central maintains for now and seeing what they do with each peso debt maturity.
Claudius Zukhovicky The Capital Market Development Manager of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange has a somewhat less optimistic view. “It is true that companies that want to buy dollars at the official price from the Centrale find it difficult to become dollars, but there are more and more importers who prefer to buy dollars on the stock exchange and are moving away from the official market. They no longer want to see if the BCRA will sell them dollars within 180 days or at what price”.
Also notice for increasing amount of free pesos, beyond seasonal issues. “Private individuals are getting out of the debt rollover that the Treasury is putting out to tender, and my impression is that they are going to the dollar”, instead of spending with the card simply because it is cheaper for them today. And since they are January expenses, the taxes that the AFIP must return They will be in people’s pockets only in April 2024, as soon as possible, without adjusting for inflation.
Can the dollar go from jogging to running? asked him clarion. “These are results that give only one piece of news, which perhaps isn’t cheap. It could be something related to the government’s assault on the court, but these are hard things to predict.
Finally, Martin Poloof the signature Coen, he summarized how the restrictions, which he sees growing, in the official market, could push a rise in parallel dollars. “After the soybean 1 and 2 dollar, the government today feels the effect of the progress of the liquidations. There are fewer dollars to supply now with importer demand. That’s why my vision is that we will have more exchange controls, more inventories, and this will affect economic activity because of the difficulties in importing inputs. We’ll go like this until the harvest dollars come back in April, but with the drought who knows how big the sales will be. If Brazil also slows the supply of dollars from exports, it will be more limited, and this would force it to continue with more inventories, and consequently, the pressure on the parallel market will be greater.
Source: Clarin
