Sergio Massa went from relativizing the damage caused by drought to admitting it in less than 24 hours. In the end he agreed to the request of the rural authorities who asked to see the minister instead of the zone secretary, José Bahillo. The minister has promised to receive them this week.
In a report with Horacio Verbitsky, broadcast on Sunday morning, Massa said: “During the last quarter, the proposal was that, due to the impact of the drought, the grain harvest would be between 9 and 11 million tons. The official SISA accreditation record shows 14.7 million tons, which is less than what a good harvest could have been, but it’s not the catastrophe feared.”
He added: “Regarding the drought, we estimate that the impact of the rain from last weekend through the 21st will give us enough soil moisture to have a good crop throughout the year.”
But hours later he underlined in his statements to Infobae: “We will convene the liaison table to propose a follow-up in the next 90 daysregion by region, looking at the satellite maps of rainfall, the INTA satellite maps of soil moisture, sector by sector, and comparing the decline in profitability 2022 against 2023. Beyond the question of exports, the first thing to look at it is the damage to Argentine producers”.
According to the president of Coninagro, Elbio Laucirica, 80% of the 19 productions are in a critical situation. Coninagro brings together the main cooperatives which are a thermometer not only for the production of the core zone but also for the regional economies.
According to the latest report of the Information System on Drought for Southern South America, the surface area of the Argentine territory affected by drought or in conditions of water stress has reached 54.48%.. The situation affects a large part of the central-northern agricultural area and, to a lesser extent, the west. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has highlighted that the agricultural areas where drought affects between 65% and 85% of the territory are the north of Buenos Aires, all of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and Chaco, central south of Córdoba, central-east of Formosa and east of Santiago del Estero.
So far wheat is the crop most affected by the drought. The harvest that ended at Christmas yielded the 14.7 million quintals mentioned by Massa, far from last year’s 21 million. Another affected winter crop was barley, whose harvest of 3.8 million tons was 27% lower than last season.
The Rosario Grain Exchange considers 12 million tons of soybeans lost and is estimated to be “the third worst Argentine harvest of the last 15 years”held.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has outlined several possible scenarios should the drought continue or rain resume. In a worst-case scenario, with a severe drought, soybeans would drop from 48 million tonnes projected when planting began in October, to 35.5 million. In the case of corn, from 50 million to 37.8 million and in sunflower from 3.9 million to 3.5 million. The severe drought impacted a nearly 2% drop in agricultural GDP and a 0.6% drop in tax collection due to lower export volumes and lower withholding tax collection. And he calculated that in terms of foreign exchange, it would receive $14.1 billion less than last year.
Source: Clarin
