The blue dollar’s rise remains stable. This Tuesday, it was up eight pesos and closed at $378, a new nominal record for the informal price. On a hot day even for the exchange rate, the Central Bank ended its series of buys and sold 23 million dollars. It’s the first time this year that the monetary authority has come out to sell.
So far in January the blue already accumulates an increase of 32 pesos, equivalent to an 8% increase, making it the fastest growing dollar in the entire range of exchange rates in Argentina.
At this price, casual was just one peso under the Qatari dollar, until now the most expensive on the market with a price tag of $379.
The price difference between the blue dollar and the Qatari dollar was what fueled the rise of the informal. The distance between these dollars reached 40 pesos a month ago and in the middle of summer has encouraged Argentines traveling out of the country to shop in the informal market rather than pay for expenses with an a card so belittle the holidays.
Analysts indicate that the blue dollar is based on the MEP dollar or the stock market dollar today $342, while the Qatari dollar is the roof.
This is why the reduction in the gap gives the Government hope that the escalation of blue will be cut, given that January would be the month with the greatest demand. “Those who buy to assume that it will continue to rise will hang on the brush”, they said in the Palacio de Hacienda.
Analysts point to other reasons that explain the jump of the blue. The economist Salvador Di Stéfano specified that this is the cause of the rise “There is less offer because tourists no longer use this market, they pay with a card at a similar price“.
This last point refers to foreigners who visit Argentina and to whom, until a month ago, it was convenient for them to bring dollars and change them on the informal market, since the change obtained was practically double the price they were given if they paid with card.
The main problem with this operation was that, being illegal, the dollars that foreigners brought in did not pass through the Central Bank. To resolve the issue, the dollar for foreign tourists was launched at the beginning of December, which allows them to pay by card and get the change from the MEP’s dollar. This reduced the offer on the blue.
While stocks and bonds have maintained their positive streak of the past few days, financial dollars have also been in turmoil. Cash with liquid, the dollar used by companies, rose 1.9%, a $363.2. Conversely, the MEP dollar had a slight decline of 0.6%, $341.9.
From Aurum Valores they stated that throughout the day the MEP dollar “fluctuated around 350 dollars with ups and downs in the 346/353 range. In the last hour, strong selling against pesos and buying against dollars drove it down by almost 10 dollars “.These variations encourage the versions according to which there would have been an intervention by official bodies to increase the offer and lower the MEP.
However, the large gap between blue and informal plays in favor of the increase in the prices of informal. This is because a “roll change”: for every $1000 that is bought in the MEP and sold in the blue -At $374, which is the purchase tip price- allows you to make a profit of $32,000. Even if the tour is attractive, it means withdrawing money from the legal circuit and passing it to the informal circuit, with the risks that this entails.
“Renewed pressures on financial spreads and free dollars are evident, and thus the usual search for cover in an election year and the subsequent fall in demand for money – together with monetary expansion – which tend to accentuate the dollarization process,” he has declared. the economist Gustavo Ber.
For Christian Buteler, the tension on exchange rates is also a consequence of the strong monetary emission.
“The BCRA issued in December $1.2 billion, mainly for 2 soybean dollar. Part of those pesos, as happened in September with 1 soybean dollar, they went to the dollar. They persist in trying to control prices, both of the dollar and of products, when the only thing they should control is the amount of pesos they issue.”
In this hot environment, the central bank had to go out and sell. That’s how they left 23 million dollars. This ended the string of signings that had allowed him to amass $285 million in the month. Now that favorable balance was reduced to 262 million dollars.
After the end of soybean 2 dollar on December 30, liquidations of the agricultural sector have stopped. In the eleven rounds that have passed in January, they have piled up 767 million dollarshalf of what was regulated in the same period of 2022.
This lower supply brings attention back to the difficulties Central will have this year in the midst of a drought that will reduce the supply of foreign exchange. And leave the door open for a $3 soybean to emerge when the heavy harvest begins in March.
AQ
Source: Clarin
