The rains were the best news of the past week and a big cause for rejoicing over the weekend in most of the country’s agricultural areas. In the midst of one of the worst droughts ever recorded and with crop potential already decimated, the recorded rainfall invites us to recalculate damage and crop potential, with very different situations depending on the locality. Furthermore, there are those who are encouraged to say that the climate trend is starting to reverse and that La Niña wants to start saying hello.
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, the accumulated totals were outside the forecasts of the most optimistic forward-looking models and ranged from more than 100 millimeters in western Buenos Aires to record zeroes in places like Canals in Córdoba and Maggiolo in Santa Fe.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa himself declared in recent weeks that he follows the INTA rainfall and hygrometric maps very closely, but as a Cordovan producer consulted by Rural Clarin, the reality at the individual producer level is much more heterogeneous compared to the map of Argentina from a satellite 10,000 meters high.
“In the same spot or red zone on the map, someone who leased their field and has 100% premium corn is not the same as someone who plants their field and produces 100% wheat/soybeans. The impact of the same map (rainfall/soil moisture) will be very different in each case,” he says, and then adds, “Within the disaster there is heterogeneity. That is, there are areas that are more disastrous than others, but what is uniform is that in all cases the expected returns are well below normal”.
For example, in the city of Duggan, north of Buenos Aires, a farmer makes the following balance. Wheat, he says, yielded 40 percent of the projected yield. In peas and canola, the loss was total. When he planned the bulk, he decided to spend all the corn from start to finish and now has 300 hectares of cereals between V5 and V9 already fertilized and in excellent condition. As for soybeans, he planted 400 hectares of primera and it rained just 50 mm, and with the last rains the crop continues to run. In addition, he sowed 100 hectares of poor-quality soybeans on barley, lots that have already lost plants, and another 300 hectares on wheat planted at the end of December, which with the latest rains gained momentum to appear above the straw.
A little further west of the province, in the municipality of Pintoone producer comments: “Yesterday’s rain saved us. Obviously there are losses in early corn and sunflowers, also in soybeans depending on the soil. In any case we will remain in the race. From an economic point of view, a calculation that we hope to be equal, the loss of 100 percent of the grain does not help”.
From July 9, Marcos Peluffo described: “In this campaign, early silage maize, with a sowing date between September 15 and October 15, had a very bad period. below what is usually budgeted for normal years. Early corn for silage will be 30 to 40% less than what a good crop would be. Last year we had exceptional yields of 40tn MV/ha because the spring was very rainy, and this year we are seeing that they will be close to 30tn MV/ha, or even a little less”. According to the producer, in the maize for grain the losses may be even greater because there was very high temperatures and dry in full bloom and there are materials showing very marked abortion of grain. “As for late corn, I’d say it’s still in the race, helped in part by last Friday’s rain,” he points out.
As for the meadows, Peluffo says that in the 9 de Julio area they are very compromised, mainly associated parties, which soon deteriorated due to drought and high temperatures, leaving only alfalfa as a producing species. “Sorghum was a green that stood out as an option within the dry season shoveling platform, contributing to a good growth rate. Because of this, those with a larger percentage of these resources felt they benefited greatly “, he adds. .
In Entre Ríos, as in almost all of the central area, the humidity maps look alarming. But once again the observation of the heterogeneity of situations dominates. In the south of the province, for example, in the city of Las Mercedes, where they come from obtaining historical grain crops, they calculate that early corn is hoped to reach 2.5-3.5 tons per hectare in good lots.
“First and second class soybeans, even if planted late and somewhat punishedI’m still in the race with yesterday’s rain. The late batches of corn are also very good. The pastures and natural field are a courtyard. Forests with discrete grazing reserves but no water in the streams,” specifies a mixed producer in the area.
Source: Clarin
