Consumer confidence improved in January. There has been an increase in confidence 7.3% compared to December, while remaining 4.4% lower than last yearaccording to the index elaborated monthly by the Finance Studies Center of the Business School of the Di Tella University.
It is an indicator that probes how is the personal financial situation of consumers both now and compared to a year ago; how do you think it will be the economic situation of the country short and medium term and what is it their predisposition to purchase durable goods, among other questions.
In this case, the polls -by the consultancy firm Poliarquía- were carried out between 2 and 12 January. In other words, it is the first measurement of confidence since Argentina’s triumph at the World Cup in Qatar in 2022. The December measurement, before the national team got through to the semifinals, was also positive.
However, the leap in the first month of 2023 was more important. What factors might influence for and against consumer mood? A slight perception of improvement in the economy, which includes the slowdown in inflation from November; the Christmas bonus and the bonuses collected at the end of the year and, why not, the joy shots for the World Cup influenced the rise in the indicator, according to the analysts consulted.
On the other hand, there is a feeling that conditions of inflation all types of projects: people feel they have to take the weight off their shoulders and is oriented towards more instantaneous consumption such as restaurant outings or weekend getaways, according to a recent survey by D’Alessio Irol in Social and Political Humor.
Along the same lines, according to the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI, the increase in consumption “is explained by the collapse in the demand for money: The high inflation exhibited by the economy makes people decide to part with pesos in exchange for goods and services, after all, It’s worth more today than tomorrow.”he pointed out in his latest report.
Sebastián Auguste, director of the UTDT Finance Research Center, specifies that “in January all the sub-indexes of the Confidence Index (ICC) showed positive monthly changes compared to the previous month, such as the personal situation, which rose by 2.1%; the macroeconomic situation, 10.8% and the willingness to purchase durable goods such as cars, motorcycles and real estate, which grew by 9.7%”.
“If we analyze in detail the component that measures the perception of the interviewees with respect to your personal situation assessed compared to the past (in the short period of one year) fell 4.2%and the component that measures expectations on what the personal situation will be like in the future (one-year expectations) increased by 6.6%, again compared to last month”, details the Di Tella report.
As for the sub-index that measures consumers’ short- and medium-term expectations with respect to the macroeconomic situation showed a significant increase (10.8%) compared to the previous month’s measurement. Analyzing in detail, short-term macroeconomic expectations improved by 16.6% and long-term expectations by 7.8%”, the study specifies.
In this regard, Damián Di Pace, an analyst at the consultancy firm Focus Market, points out that the rise in consumer confidence is certainly linked to the joint agreements achieved and the fact that “November and December were the only two months in which private and also public registered wages beat inflationno,” he says.
“In December, people were getting bonuses, Christmas bonuses or some kind of recomposition and instead, it would appear that inflation was parked at 5-6%. monthly. Not as the Government claims between 3 and 4, but further from the 6 or 7% we had a few months ago,” he explained about the greater optimism of consumers.
Regarding consumer sentiment at the regional level, “there are positive changes for the confidence index in two of the three regions: decreased by 1.2% in the federal capital, increased by 6.1% in the interior and increased by 10.8% in Greater Buenos Aires “, according to the work of the UTDT.
Finally, according to the same study, it can be deduced that consumers perceive a future that projects itself better than the present. Hence, perceptions regarding short-term conditions, or long-term expectations, that the report calls ‘Current conditions and future expectations, increased by 4.4% and 9.2% respectively, in January, compared to the indices of the previous month.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
