In 2022 the star of the market was Merval, with a 43% increase in dollars for the year. Argentine stocks, which came in at very low prices, rebounded under global momentum from energy and commodity hikes and beat inflation and the dollar.
“There are several factors that make us think so 2023 will also be a good year for Argentine equities“, says Massimiliano Donzelli, Head of Research of IOL Invertironline.
“Many companies, especially in the energy sector Central Puerto (CEPU), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGSU2), Pampa Energía (PAMP) and YPF (YPFD) already have excellent fundamentals and excellent results, especially the last two”, says Donzelli.
“The tariff adjustment has allowed an improvement in the revenues of several companies such as Transportadora de Gas del Norte (TGNO4) or Transener (TRAN),” he reiterates.
“With Argentina we are constructive. There were companies that had lost more than 95% of their value and we have always believed that at some point they would come out of those minimum levels. This is already happening with YPF and with the banks. This first phase could be extended over time, but it must depend on many political and economic issues,” says Santiago Ruiz Guiñazú, Head of Equity Sales & Trading at Adcap Grupo Financiero.
Guiñazú recommends actions related to Vaca Muerta, such as YPF and TGS. “Macro bank toowhich has a strong balance sheet, low delinquency and adequate financial leverage, and in the face of a change in the economic cycle is ready to accommodate the demand for credit that may arise”.
In fixed income, Donzelli says a low-risk alternative is marketable bonds (ONs). “We suggest Telecom’s ON (TLC5O/D), which matures in August 2025 and offers a dollar yield of 8.0% YTD, outperforming US inflation.”
Another option is YPF’s ON (YMCHD), which is backed by the company’s exports. “This tool delivers an estimated return of 9.2% per annum in dollarsDonzelli details.
With the prospect of inflation in the US coming down, Invertironline also recommends diversifying into CEDEAR. “It might be interesting to start investing in Google’s CEDEAR (GOOGL). The technology shows a low valuation both compared to other peers and compared to its historical average.
Javier Casabal, fixed income strategist at Adcap, says “sovereign bonds continue at very low parities and we think it is time to refocus on 2038 or 2041, which have an attractive yield, around 11%. While not by any risk profile, we also see a big opportunity in Buenos Aires Provincial bonds, Buenos Aires 2037A, which has been somewhat delayed.”
for Casabal another interesting bonus is 2035, which from July will more than double its current coupon. “As we approach the middle of the year and the political scene is dominated by moderate candidates, it could end up being the best bond to invest in.”
For Pedro Siaba Serrate, Head of Research & Strategy at Portfolio Personal Inversiones, “Global 2035 (GD35) looks like the best alternative, as it is pricing in the most aggressive restructuring scenario and in July this year will present the largest current yield at current prices”.
“Let’s stay constructive with the energy sector and we maintain a lower exposure to the financial sector until we have more clarity on how the government will deal with the mountain of peso debt maturities this 2023. In the materials sector, we prefer cement companies over Aluar and Ternium,” says Siaba Serrate.
From Cohen contribute to this “Corporate debt is performing well”. In this direction, they have focused on Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 with its 2031 bond. “We continue to recommend Mastellone 2026 with a yield to maturity of 11.2%. We maintain a positive view on Pampa Energía (ON 2027 / 2029), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (ON 2025), and the YPF 2026 bond guaranteed by exports”.
Source: Clarin
