On Tuesday 14 February, INDEC will announce the inflation for January which, according to the consultants, will show an increase of 5.5 to 6%. This level shows an acceleration compared to the previous month and has already begun to worry the Government, which hastened negotiations with companies to curb the rises by betting on price agreements.
How little, in February another “fuel” element is added to the price fire: the increase in meat, an article of great weight in the Food and Beverage category that explains 23% of the consumer price index (CPI).
What happens is that the price of meat, which in the last seven months had lost ground against inflation, has hit a 30% jump in the Treasury market and this makes us predict – sooner rather than later – a reflection of that climb on the butcher’s counters.
The extent of this impact will depend on the transfer capacity to demand, the analysts explain. But in principle “For every 10% increase in the price of meat, the CPI increases by 0.6 percentage points approximately”, explains the economist of the consultancy firm Eco Go, Sebastián Menescaldi. According to his vision, the impact on retail prices has only begun to be seen in the last few hours, with which inflation will be felt in February.
“Clearly, the increase in meat that corresponds to the second half of January will have a partial impact on inflation this month. The effect on the bench will certainly be felt more in February,” agrees Hernán Lechter, CEPA economist.
An indicator of food behavior week by week can be seen in the measurement of prices in supermarkets carried out by the consultancy LCG. On Friday, the indicator showed an average increase of 5% in the last four weeks and 5.5% measured from end to end.
According to its analysts, “average inflation it accelerated for the fifth consecutive week and placed at its highest value in nine weeks.
Meanwhile, in the Eco Go surveys in terms of food corresponding to the third week of the month, a variation of 1.7% was detected compared to the previous week. “With these data and considering a projected weekly change of 1% for the last week of the month, household food inflation in January would rise at 4.9% per month”, noted in its latest report.
With which, January inflation reading would come in at 5.6%, 0.2 points higher than expected the previous week. “This is mainly due to a slightly higher than estimated food record,” warned the consultant.
In January, in addition to food, other regulated products boosted the overall indicator, such as prepaid (6.5%), fuel (2%) and gas, electricity and water tariffs (14.1%, 19.6% and 20.1% respectively), domestic service (6.5%) and bus and train in AMBA (between 20% and 70% depending on the service), among others.
From the consulting firm Analytica, they see inflation of 5.8% for January, mainly explained by the increase in regulated prices. And others, such as those of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, expect a 6.3% increase.
The latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) conducted by the Central Bank forecasts a 5.6% for January and an acceleration for the following months: 5.7% in February, a peak of 6.2% in March and 6 % in April.
The scenario calls into question the achievement of the objectives set by the Massista management: to lower inflation by one point every two months e reach April with a 3 ahead. The slowdown was seen in November and December at a level of 5%, but was cut back in January. For this February and March they should hover around 4% to reach the desired 3% in April,
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
