For
George Castro
International analyst
The Ukrainian war has become a long-term conflict where time plays a fundamental role, more relevant than the space actually controlled, and even the military and economic power of the contenders.
One year after the unleashing of the Russian invasion, the nature of warfare has changed and… it has become a global conflict led by the United States and NATO, in which Ukrainian forces play a merely operational role, with funding, resources and weapons provided by Washington, with the strategic and logistical framework of the Pentagon.
In general in war, and in this specific case, what is essential in the balance of forces is not the military might of the antagonists, but will, decision and lucidity of their respective political and strategic leaderships.
If military power were the one that determines conflicts, everything would be resolved in an exercise of accounting of material forces, while – on the contrary – strategy and leadership are the decisive factors. This is an essential point repeatedly emphasized by von Clausewitz.
Time as a strategic factor is increasingly playing in Russia’s favor, and this means that the most critical point for the West is not in Ukraine, but in the center of the device, which is Washington.
The power equation in the United States has been irreversibly transformed by Republican control of the House of Representatives, gained by the midterm elections.
In the United States –says Alexis de Tocqueville- “…there is no separation of powers, but three powers fighting for the final decision”; and now the House of Representatives, directly linked to public opinion, which renews all its members (435) every 2 years, is in the hands of the Republicans, led by Kevin McKarty, who have launched an existential offensive, in the strict sense of the term, against President Joe Biden, who is the commander-in-chief of the US military and the head of the global war against Russia that is unfolding in Ukraine.
The lower house is an integral and often decisive part of the US government, which means it is directly related to American public opinionwhich is the last and definitive spring of power.
The dependence of the Kiev government on the United States is absolute and complete. Washington covers all expenses of the Ukrainian state, both civilian and military, including the most basic expenses of day-to-day administration.
Russia has taken over the last six months a defensive strategy because he believes that he no longer has to deal with the Ukrainian state, but with the United States and NATO.
The conquest of the city of Soledar in the Donbas by Russian forces is intended to consolidate the defensive strategy assumed by Moscow in southern and western Ukraine, while the “offensive” aspect of this strategy is expressed through the missile attack with which it has already destroyed more than 50% of Ukraine’s energy and connectivity infrastructure.
Immediately behind the front line, Russia has built a deep network of trenches and ditches that extends virtually to the Russian border, located approximately 300km from the battle.
It is a result of Russia’s historical experience in WWII where it deployed a similar device at the Battle of Kursk located within striking distance of the current battlefront; and it was there that the Stalin/Zhukov duo managed to destroy Hitler’s armored corps led by Manstein and Kluge, thus paving the way for the final offensive against Berlin.
General Valery Gueresimov, new head of the operation in Ukraine, expresses this strategy today; and is heir to the defensive/offensive vision (in this order), typical of the historical Russian experience originating from the Napoleonic invasion of 1812, and updated with the victory of Stalingrad (August 1942/February 1943), which was the decisive battle of the World War II, culminating in the surrender of General Paulus’ 6th Army of the Third Reich, this is what Russia has launched the last 6 months into the Ukrainian War.
The wars of the 21st century are at the same time those of information instantaneousness, for this reason mastery of information is key, but always and ultimately this must yield to the reality of things: it is the struggle of the “story” against the sense of reality; and this is what is at stake today in the Ukrainian war.
But war continues to be, now and always, above all a clash of wills, i.e. an inseparable blend of courage and strategic, i.e. geopolitical, clairvoyance in equal parts.
The Ukrainian war is still open and the battlefield is not today in the heart of Europe, but in Washington, the capital of the United States, which is the leader of this new type of global conflict, the most important of the 21st century up to today . the present day.
Source: Clarin
