After lagging behind last year, parallel dollars picked up speed in January with increases of up to 10%. The increase is almost double the expected inflation for the first month of 2023, as advisors place close to 6% and higher than the December figure. It also represents the third raise since the hiring of Sergio Massa.
In July, after the resignation of Martín Guzmán and his replacement by Silvina Batakis, andinformal increased by 14%. Then, since the landing in Massa, it rose by 2.6% in August. In September and October it continued to slow, with increases of 0.68 and 0.69%. In November it jumped 8.2%, in December it was up 10.19% and in January rose 10.11%.
The flight of blue towards other prices has imposed a series of measures to contain them. This included debt repurchases at the cost of $320 million of reserves since January 18as far as he could find out clarion. But the impact was limited: in January the gap with the wholesaler rose to 103.7%, almost 14 points more than in December.
After surging strongly last week and hitting a nominal record high of $386, the blue dollar closed Tuesday at $381. MEP rebounded $1 to hit $354, while cash with liquidity (CCL) is dropped $2 to $367. Thus, financial dollars piled up 6.2% and 8.2% gains in January.
“What happened in January is because the dollar is up 20 points less than inflation in 2022, the printing of banknotes in December it began to take effect and the outlook with drought and a slowing world is not good. Due to a certain relative lag, more pesos and the expectation of a smaller abundance of dollars, exchange rates reacted,” economist Jorge Neyro explained.
One of the factors that influenced the takeoff of blue compared to other prices was the launch of a dollar for non-resident tourists similar to the MEP for consumption on cards. With that measure, Travel and ticket gross receipts increased 78% in December to $108 million, according to official data.
“Card transactions have ceased to be carried out by the informal market and have passed through the official market at the value of the MEP. That’s about $5 million a day which in December disappeared from the blue offer. This doesn’t change anything for the MEP, but yes for the blue, it’s a supply gap,” said Emiliano Anselmi, PPI economist.
After a November-December summer, foreign exchange pressures intensified due to foreign exchange shortages amid lower agricultural sales due to a soybean dollar demise and drought. Thus, the central bank has accentuated the sales and in January has accumulated a negative balance of US$190 milliona boot registered only 3 times in the last 20 years.
Due to the lack of rain, Sergio Massa convened the Liaison Table on Tuesday. Economists estimate that the climate phenomenon it will reduce exports by at least $7 billion. The government tries to make up for the dollar loss with funding from Brazil and some kind of relief from the IMF, but it’s also worried about inflation.
A widening exchange rate gap could put further pressure on prices. With an official dollar at $187, financial dollars ended January with an 89-96% gap. Given restrictions on access to foreign currency, this has resulted in some goods being imported at an exchange rate of up to $270.
“The impact on inflation is widespread, there is not as strong a correlation. It is possible that the impact will be greater in February because it is fed back, the best one can hope for is that exchange rates will rise around inflation “, Neiro said. “The gap takes you this month in inflation expectations and may accelerate price hikes for coverage,” Anselmi assured.
The elections and the rollover of the peso debt also generate uncertainty about the dollar. “One is what happens in politics when the candidates start to be defined or the results are known. The other is the weights of the local debt market, there the government has a major challenge so that they are not dollarized,” said Alejandro Giacoia, from Ecoviews.
Source: Clarin
