A few days after knowing the official inflation for January which the consultants estimate with an increase between 5.5 and 6%, the month of February begins with an inflationary inertia which is also very important. According to analysts contributing their forecasts to the Central Bank’s Market Expectations (REM) survey, the increase will average 5.7% per month.
In this way, the economic variable of prices complicates the forecasts of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who expected to reduce inflation below 4% by April, favored above all by the context of an election year.
However, just as January has begun to elude those predictions, so too in February the price variable is pushed further than desired due to anticipated increases in fuel, prepaid and rentals. Furthermore, adding to the increases in these goods and services is the pressure they have again exerted food, led by beef. According to measurements from the LCG consultancy, food already arrives with a 5.5% increase in the first four weeks of January.
Particularly, the price of meat has awakened from the “hibernation” it has been in since April last year and threatens to hit the counters during this month. It is estimated that for every 10% increase in price, it affects the consumer price index (CPI), which is used to measure inflation, by 0.6%.
This is because meat has a strong impact on the “food and beverage” category, which weighs 23% in the CPI. With which, after the 30% jump recorded by animals in the Hacienda de Cañuelas market, in recent days, increases are already hitting shelves. Yesterday, a kilo of roast in supermarkets fluctuated between 1,329 and 1,985 dollars; Milanese buttocks, between $1,680 and $1,780. And in neighborhood butcher shops, vacuum cleaners cost between $1,680 and $2,100 a pound, depending on the neighborhood.
Of the month’s increases, the largest impact is expected in the cost of energy tariffs, after the abolition of subsidies. As far as electricity is concerned, residential users included in levels 1 of high income and 3 of medium income will receive an average increase in the service bill of 14%.
Gas bills, for their part, still have tariff increases awaiting definition. The increase is due to “temporary tariff adjustments” requested by the transport companies (TGN and TGS) and by gas distributors.
For prepaid, starting from February. the increase will be 4.91% for those workers who receive up to six minimum wages. In the case of affiliates exceeding the announced limit, monthly increases will apply and will adjust based on the Health Cost Index, which as established would be 8.21%.
As for the rents, will also have a greater impact on tenants’ pockets than in January. Whoever renews their lease agreements will do so with an annual variation of 87%, according to the latest updated data of the Rental Contracts Index (ICL) prepared by the Central Bank. The ICL is an index that contemplates a mixture, in parts itself, the evolution of inflation and wages.
In the case of the category of In telecommunications, the Government has authorized a staggered increase of 14.5% in fixed and mobile telephony, internet, cable and satellite television services. ISyouThe application is expected in four installments during the first quarter of the year.
Another of the increases that will be added in February is that of domestic workers who will receive the third increase approved by the National Commission for work in private homes. This percentage will be 5%, which is added to the 8% in December and the 7% received in January. In this way, when the remaining 4% is added in March, the 24% agreed in the last month of 2022 will be rounded off.
Source: Clarin
