According to a calculation by Fiel’s economist, Isidro Guardarucci, La Matanza would have added $85,000 million more in its coffers since 2012, year-over-year, by way of city partnerships. Since the estimate considers the inflation accumulated throughout that period of high and rising rates, the 85 billion dollars are expressed in what economists call constant values and therefore comparable from one year to the next. Yesterday JxC leaders issued a statement with a lower figure (dates back to 2022, see below).
In the last few hours, in the social networks of economists, political scientists and statisticians, there has been talk of “population fraud” because of the economic and political consequences that this statistical tangle would entail.
According to data from that registry, the population of The Slaughter was 1,775,816 in 2010. And on this basis, 2,374,149 people were predicted to live by 2022.
The latter figure, which turned out to beinflated‘, distorted calculations and proportions that are inputs for making public policies. An example of this is that the share sharing mechanism of the province of Buenos Aires uses the size of the population of each municipality (it has a 35% incidence according to the coefficient), which is subject to the logic of the simple rule of three that the higher the population, the more resources go from La Plata to the most inhabited municipalities. Matanza, therefore, had benefited since 2010 according to this mechanism and on the basis of which Guardarucci elaborated his calculation.
But the 2022 census, released on Tuesday, showed that La Matanza’s population is lower than expected, at a predicted 2,374,149. The figure he recorded was 1,837,774, which is 536,375 less than the estimate based on 2010.
Federico Tiberti, an Argentine political scientist who lives and studies in the United States, and who had warned about the 2010 census data for La Matanza, noted in a tweet that “Following the last 3 censuses, the population of La Matanza would have grown up to 3.9% annually between 2001 and 2010, only to grow by 0.2% annually between 2010 and 2022. If we skip 2010, would have grown by 1.8% annually between 2001 and 2022”.
In the province of Buenos Aires, Law 10.559 establishes a distribution mechanism made up of coefficients that respond to various variables that are updated over time. The percentage received by each municipality is determined as follows: 35.9% by population; 13.34% in proportion to the inverse of the per capita contributory capacity weighted on the population; 8.7% in direct proportion to the area of the municipality; 12.95% in relation to available beds, level of complexity and level of occupancy; 9.25% in relation to the number of medical visits recorded with or without hospitalisation; 3.7% in relation to the number of discharges of patients registered in hospitalized structures; 7.4% in relation to the number of patients per day in hospitalized establishments; 3.7% in relation to the number of hospital structures without hospitalization; 5% is distributed among the municipalities that cover the services and functions transferred.
This whole formula suggests that the incentives of the municipalities are not only in favor of a larger population but also, as Guardarucci argues, “the variables used do not focus on prevention, but instead reward care and cure policies. The existence of ‘health centres’ in the Conurbano and a large anecdote of municipalities maximizing medical consultations are expected consequences of a law on co-participation which provides for unfair incentives”.
The overestimation of the population of La Matanza was noted in 2022 by Tiberti himself and the systems engineer Mauro Infantino. Separately, they both cross-referenced the rarities they and other specialists were finding as a result of Matanzas’ overrepresented population. In this way, the vaccination rate during the pandemic has been lower in La Matanza than in other territories, as have school enrollments or Covid mortality. Last August, Tiberti wrote an article entitled “Is the population of La Matanza overrepresented?”
“It’s taking shape,” Infantino said yesterday, following the release of the 2022 census.
This was underlined yesterday by the economist and geographical data expert Juan Ignacio Fulponi the biggest deviation of all AMBA matches corresponds to La Matanza.
“Although I would also like to make a warning for Esteban Echeverria and Ezeiza which do not present small differences, even if undoubtedly the one that moves the balance is La Matanza”.
The late Jorge Todesca, as director of the institute in 2016, at the time he filed a complaint.
“The census is a vital tool for generating public policy and accurately distributing budgets and works for its purpose. If the censuses do not represent reality, public policies will not be adapted and the benefits will not reach the population”, explains Fulponi.
For this, therefore, it is essential, at least, to measure the population well.
Rejection of Together for Change
“Kirchnerism has turned the census into a tool for its own benefit”, he began by saying a text by JxC signed yesterday by mayors, deputies and national senators, provincial senators and provincial representatives. “We express our absolute rejection of this Kirchnerist maneuver with which they only seek to deepen their populism and provide positions for their militants. We ask for a prompt solution to overcome this offense against federalism and the other affected municipalities”.
For JxC “the scam amounts to 34,000 million pesos of funds illegitimately received by La Matanza between 2011 and 2022”.
When asked by the Fiel economist, Isidro Guardarucci, who estimates a higher figure (85,000 million dollars between 2012 and 2023, see below), he replied that the calculation in the leaders’ statement “is based on 2022 values. Each weight of 2022, in 2023 they are double. So the same thing, if you want to put it in terms of the 2023 budget, is double. Every day that passes the claim needs to be updated and then, in addition to the problem of bad census measurement, in this case there is also the problem of money”.
Source: Clarin
