Marina dal Poggetto coined what was the hit of the summer among economists. You talked about the prison rabbits that Sergio Massa could turn to. But after January and after the Pyrrhic victory with the debt buyback, with the aim of intervening in the foreign exchange market to reduce the gap and which had the opposite effect, the economist concludes: “Wizards don’t have many rabbits, at most two.”.
In his view, inflation is darkening his prospects. “We calculate the January index in 5.9% and February goes up with the increase in meat that every 10% add a point to that index”. He explains to his clients that the sheet is too short with a dollar supply that is reduced by $20,000 million this year, due to drought and a lower transfer of funds from the IMF. “The plan to get to the minister is going limit to commercial administration”. This is more stock.
The bankers relativize the lack of dollars and bet that they will get the loan called Repo, which has a high cost. They will have to offer a guarantee of 3,000 million dollars to obtain 1,000 million dollars.
That sector is disrupted by its own loans to the state. That reality and the technological revolution have an impact. Of the 312 entities that were registered in the 1980s, 77 remain in full swing with massive branch closures, voluntary withdrawals and early retirements.
Curiously, La Bancaria directed by Sergio Palazzo, a trade unionist assigned to minor positions in the CGT, a former Radical and pro-government deputy, doesn’t make waves “It’s pragmatic”it was defined by the owner of a foreign bank.
The industrialists are preparing for what they call the climate of exacerbation in March, with the return to classes, supply problems in the supply chains, the launch of parities and the political campaign. In that circle they release it Massa’s main credibility problem is inflation.
In what were negotiations that consumed the entire month of January, Commerce Secretary Matías Tombolini did not speak of a plan. He was sincere: “We just have a roadmap which is to reduce the deficit, take care of the dollars and build up reserves”.
This Friday and ahead of number one will be the CCK launch show for a deal which includes 50,000 products ranging from remedies to cell phones, plus basic basket items. For controls they put together a monitoring table at the Secretariat of Commerce which will meet every day at 8:30. There is a certain resignation in companies that diminishes in the face of the official promise of access to official foreign currency for imports.
But there are prices that escape him. This is the case with meat, which due to the drought moved just 42% compared to inflation of 94.8% in 2022 and is likely to become a puzzle for a long time.
Expert Bernardo Cané advises that calves born in winter are weaned in March suffered from drought, heat stroke and poor diet from their mothers and will emerge 15 to 20 kilos less than their historical weight of 170 kilos.
In turn, the cows, for almost the same reasons, will not become pregnant in the next spring services. There will be fewer calves in 2024. “That’s one reason, but it’s possible be other triggers in an economy where pizza or ice cream triple the value of sirloin”.
In this scenario, the modernization of trade has been reversed and will continue with the half-ox on its shoulders. The chamber system was proposed in 1991. It not only aims at health, but also at rationally set counter prices and not based on the small scale of crowded butcher shops in which this family business does not sink.
They don’t understand the Brazilians of Marfrig, world kings of the refrigeration business, who have grown in terms of work and brand after the acquisition, among others, of the local Campos del Tesoro.
The same happens with Minerva, the other Brazilian giant, directed by the former Coto Martín di Giacomo and with the people of Gorina, national capitals under the baton of the accountant Carlos Riusech. It has emerged that around 10,000 tons are stored in the cold rooms, 2.5% of total exports. Will there be a dollar beef coming? The same thing happens with pears and apples in the South. There is talk of a $260 dollar special.
Of course, what runs like clockwork is the pipeline that will be ready on June 20 or July 9 if all goes as it has so far. Of course, it is not a panacea given that it will be able to transport 11 million cubic meters a day and will rise to 19 million when the compression stations are ready. In winter, the daily consumption of gas rises to 90 million cubic metres. A part is provided by the current system, but about 30 million cubic meters will be missing.
In this area, the entrepreneurs highlight how they have aligned themselves around Massa, unlike what happened with the Guzmán administration. In Energy there are many people from Santa Cruz and Agustín Gerez, head of Enarsa, is the best expression of the picture.
Federico Basualdo, who became famous for the obstacles to the adjustment of tariffs that Martín Guzmán sought, returned home and asked for silence. With a certain irony, someone recalled the character of Stendhal in the Certosa di Parma: “He had never had the talent for public affairs, his management was slow and complicated”.
On the other hand, former minister Guzmán seems to be very determined to get out of ostracism. His think tank is already based at the Microcentro, it still lacks the name.
Let’s go back to energy the flagship of this administration: negotiations have already begun with Techint for the reversal of the TGN gas pipeline given the imminence of the decline of Bolivian gas and the danger that the thermoelectric plants in the North will run out of fuel.
There are also projects in the Transportadora de Gas del Sur. They turned 30 this week and one of their executives slipped it They only honored their contracts for 9 years. Those who did not respect their word went to Darío Martínez, the former energy minister who returned to Neuquén with the promise of running for governor for justicialism. They console him as a candidate for deputy.
Will the Liquefied Natural Gas bill suffer the same fate? YPF president Pablo González closed a deal with Malaysia’s Petronas involving billions of dollars. This evening He leaves for India at the seminar that brings together the great protagonists. In turn, India is interested in Argentine oil and this explains a meeting with Shri Hardeep Singh, the powerful oil and natural gas minister.
Sure, as soon as farming resumes, it will missing diesel, but not in last year’s volumes. Something has been learned. “On the bioethanol side, the Ministry of Energy expects a prompt redistribution of the quotas, between those corresponding to the sugar industry and those for corn, while Agriculture and Energy are analyzing the possibility of increasing the blends from the current 12%, up to 15%”, says the consultant Claudio Molina, observing that “we are not working well to prevent a crisis from happening again this year. Lack of planning.”
There are some who have plans. This is the case of Juan Carlos Bojanich, an accountant by profession and whose family made a fortune with the industrial bakery that supplied the Argentine navy at the Puerto Belgrano naval base. It has bingo halls in some of the most important cities in the province and has ten biodiesel plants.
Now try to land on ethanol. Like so many others in the business world, Bojanich has his chips on both sides of the crack. bingos explain his solid relationship with Daniel Angelici of Cambiemos. His sympathy with Máximo Kirchner is also well known. Perhaps, for the permanent comparison and hardness of its forms, as described by its competitors.
This week and in his appearance in front of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s teams, Martin Redrado spoke about the opportunities offered to the country by near shoring, or short supply chains, the method born at the pace of the pandemic. Redrado, director of the Central Bank of Malaysia, referred to that area of Asia Pacific asking what the country has to offer. And he assured that it is possible to recover credibility with laws that support an economic policy of stability and growth.
In that, someone questioned him: “Martín, what do foreign investors ask you?”
It doesn’t matter who is in government. They want to know at what exchange rate they will accept the investment and whether they will be able to dispose of their money at a later datewas the blunt answer.
Source: Clarin
