Fifteen or more years ago, economist and CONICET researcher, José María Fanelli, said that Argentina’s economy faced an almost unparalleled opportunity because it was undergoing a sustained recovery in terms of trade like never before (China was growing by 12% per year) E because it had a demographic bonus.
Today prices continue to be advantageous -although China will grow close to 5% this year, the best terms of trade were recorded in 2022-, the demographic dividend still brings benefits and yet, 15 years later, there is talk of ‘demographic fraud’.
The term demographic dividend is a standard concept used by demographers and economists to refer to a window of opportunity that a country faces when a fraction of its inhabitants create wealth (jobs) while improving the quality of life of the rest. It is based on the fact that one part of the population is going through its most active age and another is in what is called the dependent phase. The combination of both varies if fertility and mortality decrease, for example. Both phenomena (low fertility and mortality) are separate issues but occur simultaneously and impact the development of societies, economies and countries.
An important effect for the economy of the decline in the fertility rate is that it could give ‘air’ to prepare to invest in the generation that in a few years will be educated and trained to support the dependent population, who are ultimately active and active today who can work more years thanks to lower mortality. This is a boon for economies that can benefit from improving education in the future and making work more productive.
“Argentina has been going through this for several decades and maybe now we are at the maximum point of the bonus”says Rafael Rofman, an economist, demographer and former adviser to the World Bank. “We have about 20 more years to enjoy this.”
The problem, like everything else, is whether Argentina is doing it.
What do you think?
Child poverty has increased in two decades and currently exceeds 60% -with favorable international prices-. This shows that Argentina accumulates little human capital.
And from the still scarce results of the 2022 Census, not much data emerges that sheds light on whether public policies in Argentina are really focused on the use of this demographic bonus. The error in measuring the population of La Matanza in the 2010 census confirmed with the result of the 2022 census (its population was overestimated in 2010 and there is talk of demographic fraud), confirms that in Argentina decisions are made by ‘ojimeter ‘ and bad data.
Source: Clarin
